Opinion | Why Russia is gambling on a protracted war in Ukraine
Despite a stagnating economy and mounting casualties on the battlefield, Moscow believes it can wait out Ukrainian and Western resolve
Russia has structural advantages that make this gamble rational. Unlike other major powers, it’s barely integrated into the global financial system. Its economy runs on commodities that people need regardless of geopolitical tensions. While sanctions hurt, Russia has increased trade with India and China.
The messier the world gets, the more valuable Russia’s disruptive capacity becomes. Prolonged conflict keeps energy prices volatile, distracts Western attention and strains alliances. This isn’t spite; it’s strategy. Russia doesn’t need global order to thrive. It needs leverage.
Politically, Moscow has time without accountability. Russian President Vladimir Putin faces no real electoral challenge. Meanwhile, Trump needs political victories before voters judge him. European leaders face parliaments questioning endless aid. Russia can sustain years of grinding conflict, free from the political costs that might cripple other Western leaders. This asymmetry is Russia’s core bet: Western impatience will crack before Russian endurance does.
To Moscow, the stakes are existential. A fully Western-oriented Ukraine that could potentially join Nato is seen as striking at the core of Russian security, eliminating buffer zones and placing Western military infrastructure on Russia’s doorstep. These aren’t manufactured concerns; they’re deeply rooted in Russian strategic thinking. If Russia can wait out Western resolve, it preserves not just territorial gains but its entire security architecture.
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