Opinion | How Trump’s Venezuela strike humiliated Russia and worried China

US President Donald Trump’s actions in Venezuela and the kidnapping of the country’s president, Nicolas Maduro, have put Russia and China – widely considered two of Caracas’ most important international partners – in a difficult position. If they do not significantly reduce ties with the Latin American nation, they risk Washington’s retaliation. But who has more to lose, Moscow or Beijing?

Unlike previous American leaders, Trump has not made any pretence about protecting democracy and human rights. In Venezuela, he has made it clear that his interests are primarily driven by energy.

Reports suggest the Trump administration is demanding Venezuela partner exclusively with the United States on oil production and cut off ties with Russia and China, as well as Iran and Cuba. At first glance, this move could have a serious impact on Beijing, given that China is a major buyer of Venezuelan oil, but would it really?

While around 80 per cent of Venezuelan oil was sent to China last year, that accounted for just 4 per cent of China’s total oil imports. The fact that oil prices fell despite US military actions in Venezuela suggests the global market does not see a threat of oil shortages. Thus, even if Caracas completely halts oil exports to China, Beijing can simply increase imports from other producers.

Russia does not appear to be as fortunate. The US seizure of a Russian-flagged oil tanker on January 7 represents a serious blow to the Kremlin. Still bogged down by its invasion of Ukraine, Russia is not in a position to respond to Trump’s move, leaving pro-Kremlin propaganda in a difficult situation.