Opinion | How Saudi diplomacy is thwarting Trump’s desire for war with Iran

The new year is not off to a good start. In January, US president Donald Trump ordered the abduction of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro and now there is a massive US military build-up in the Middle East, apparently aimed at Iran. One aircraft carrier strike group has arrived in the region, with another one on the way.

However, there does appear to be a silver lining to the stand-off. Unlike last year, when US bombers struck Iranian nuclear facilities during the conflict between Iran and Israel, Trump has shown somewhat more restraint this time. While he has ramped up his “maximum pressure” campaign against Iran by combining sabre-rattling with economic sanctions, he has – at least so far – refrained from waging an all-out war.

One of the factors that appear to be holding back Trump is Saudi Arabia’s diplomatic intervention and its refusal to allow the US to use its airspace and territory to launch an attack on Iran. It is difficult to imagine that only a few years ago, Iran’s security situation was far more precarious, with its Arab and Israeli neighbours threatening to unite against it. That changed when China brokered a detente between Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023. Today, this detente has become deterrence, preventing the region from descending into total war.

Trump does not fear Iran or its proxies retaliating against the United States or its allies. Following Trump ordering the assassination of Iranian General Qassem Soleimani in 2020, Iran responded by firing missiles at American military bases in Iraq. However, wary that the situation could spiral out of control, Iran gave prior notice to the US through intermediaries.

A similar scenario unfolded last year: following US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iran launched missiles at a US base in Qatar – again, with prior notice. Although these calibrated responses successfully averted escalation, they also revealed that Iran, despite its fiery rhetoric, is a paper tiger that is unwilling to confront the US directly, even when humiliated.

Militarily, Iran is no match for the US. Moreover, with the fall of former Syrian president Bashar al-Assad and the death of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, many in the Trump administration believe the Iran-led “axis of resistance” has been effectively dismantled. Compounded by the recent domestic protests, many hawks in Washington now believe Iran is on its last legs and are urging Trump to close in for the kill.