The 2020 Abraham Accords were heralded as a transformative diplomatic breakthrough in the Middle East. The US-brokered agreements normalised relations between Israel and Arab states including the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Bahrain. They established full diplomatic relations, opening embassies, initiating direct commercial flights, expanding trade ties and encouraging people-to-people exchanges.
The accords were notable because the participating Arab states agreed to normalise relations with Israel without requiring prior resolution of the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict – departing from a long-standing Arab League position.
The Arab states were expected to gain economic opportunities, technological cooperation and enhanced security coordination by aligning more closely with Israel and the United States against the perceived regional threat posed by Iran. The agreements were therefore not simply a means of reconciliation but elements of an emerging regional security architecture built around shared concerns about Iran’s expanding influence.
Yet the latest
US-Israel confrontation with Iran and regional escalation that followed has placed that logic under unprecedented strain. What was initially envisioned as a framework for regional stability now faces a critical test. For Arab states, the conflict has revealed a troubling paradox: the very alliances meant to enhance their security may also have increased their vulnerability.
The push to expand the
Abraham Accords is central to the diplomatic strategy of US President Donald Trump’s second term. Washington continues to explore the possibility of including more states such as Saudi Arabia, Syria and Lebanon. From the US’ perspective, the weakening of Iran’s regional posture created an opportunity for a broader Arab-Israeli security alignment. Expanding the accords would reinforce intelligence sharing, missile-defence coordination and economic integration.
In this interpretation, the confrontation with Iran does not
undermine the accords; rather, it reinforces the argument that closer cooperation among US partners is strategically necessary.
