Trump has few cards to play against Iran and in China
The impasse over the Strait of Hormuz is a long chess game across multiple arenas, not easily solved by a naval blockade or a mere poker bluff
The much-awaited reopening of the Strait of Hormuz remains elusive. On Sunday, US President Donald Trump found the Iranian response to the latest US peace proposal to be “unacceptable”, so it is unlikely that a pathway to unblocking the waterway can be established before his Beijing trip. With Hormuz unresolved, the US president will arrive for the summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping this week with a weaker hand. Bluster aside, what is the United States’ true bargaining position on the strait?
Despite Trump’s repeated declarations that the US has all the cards while Iran has none, the opposite is closer to the truth. The naval blockade is the last move of a player trapped in the wrong game with no easy exit. This is a long chess game across multiple arenas, not one easily solved by a mere poker bluff.
The two economies are engaged in a contest of endurance. Since the start of the Iran war, US petrol prices have risen about 50 per cent, to an average of US$4.60 a gallon last week. In a poll conducted last week, nearly 58 per cent of US voters disapproved of Trump’s handling of inflation, while 51 per cent were dissatisfied with his handling of the economy.