For SpaceX, global dominance may not be written in the stars
Space is not an ordinary, commercial, open market but a strategic domain tied directly to sovereignty, security and industrial policy
The excitement around SpaceX, fuelled by the targeted US$1.8 trillion valuation for its initial public offering and its promising Starship rocket development, has revived a familiar claim: that SpaceX is on course to dominate the space market.
But space is no ordinary, commercial, open market. It is a strategic domain where launch, satellite communications, remote sensing and orbital infrastructure are tied directly to sovereignty, security and industrial policy.
Governments do not choose space providers the way consumers choose smartphones. The central question is not only who offers the best technology or lowest cost, but also who can be trusted with critical infrastructure, sensitive data and long-term dependency.
In this light, the bullish assumption that SpaceX will simply overwhelm international markets becomes much less persuasive.