Dr Doom gives rare glimpse of bright side

ICONOCLASTIC economist Marc Faber, known in Hongkong as ''Dr Doom'' for his unrelentingly pessimistic views, is bullish - believe it or not - on gold.

The debased state of the world's currencies and the economies they represent, he predicts, will drive the price of gold up to US$410 an ounce by the end of this year from US$333 at the end of 1992.

But Mr Andrew Freris, newly ensconced at Salomon Brothers as chief economist, dismisses the glistening stuff as a ''barbaric relic'' which will soon be no more exalted than zinc.

Driven by central banks selling their reserves, the soon-to-be-base metal's price will finish the year at a paltry US$315, he asserts.

Meanwhile the Hongkong Chamber of Commerce's economic chief, Mr Ian Perkin, names US President Bill Clinton as the number one danger to the world economy, closely followed by his wife Hillary and German Chancellor Helmut Kohl.

Mr Faber, Mr Freris and Mr Perkin figure in positions eight, nine and 10, respectively.

Such was the tenor of the debate which took place yesterday at a luncheon hosted by the Hongkong Management Association.

It was agreed that the US dollar would head upwards against the European currencies, but not by virtue of its intrinsic merit.

''It's not that the US dollar is particularly strong; it's that other currencies are so much worse,'' said Mr Faber, ever so gloomily.

He alone believed the dollar would rise against the yen this year.

Mr Perkin, newly anointed to the forecasting triumvirate, professed himself ''extremely worried'' about Clintonomics as unveiled, in full glory, in the US president's speech yesterday Hongkong time.

''All that taxing and spending will have major effects on the financial markets in 1993 and beyond,'' he said.

As for the prospects for the Hang Seng Index, opinions diverged widely.

Contrarian Mr Faber, who was ''quite negative'' about equity markets generally, saw the local index finishing the year at 3,700 points after bottoming at half its peak of 6,400.

Mr Freris daringly pronounced himself ''extremely bullish'' about the Hongkong market, and predicted that the index would stand at a minimum of 6,500 points at year-end.

Mr Perkin took the cautious approach, forecasting the index would close the year at 5,400 points.