Conflicts 'inevitable' after Deng reforms

Political changes and social conflicts are inevitable after the economic reforms of Deng Xiaoping over the past decade, warns a top Beijing intellectual.

In his book Looking at Post-Deng China with a Third Eye, which has just been published in Hong Kong, Wang Shan also expresses doubts on the future of the 'One Country, Two Systems' formula.

Mr Wang, 45, a neo-conservative theorist who often advises party and government departments, argues the term, which was originally devised for Taiwan, carries a certain political euphemism.

'However, it will not change the reality that Hong Kong remains a local government,' he says.

When two different systems converge, it is not necessarily the most advanced culture that will win, he warns.

Mr Wang argues more voices of opposition will be heard in Beijing in the wake of the collapse of the closed society that followed Deng's open policy.

'Apart from the speedy economic growth, continuous reforms on property rights will also be followed by political consequence,' he writes.

'A larger degree of the denial of communist principles is foreseen if the country is to improve productivity.' Rising corruption may also weaken government authority and exacerbate social imbalances.

Mr Wang says the country's leaders will be forced to spend more time on defusing social conflict and ideological disputes.

One of the administration's most pressing problems is the predicament of state-owned enterprises, which the Government keeps subsidising to shore up socialism.

The author, who heads a non-government research think-tank in Beijing, deplores the fact that former party chiefs Hu Yaobang and Zhao Ziyang were unable to promote reforms because they misjudged the social costs to be paid.