One step forward, two steps back as row leaves bad taste

An ugly incident is now almost closed thanks to skilful diplomacy, verbal ambiguity and cool heads, but it will have done little to secure better relations between the two sides.

China insisted on a formal apology and an end to further US surveillance flights within 200km of its coast, neither of which were obtained.

The accusations over the incident and demands made the day after were never supported by convincing evidence of wrongdoing by the Americans. Further investigations may prove otherwise, a possibility that could exacerbate internal Chinese tensions.

The incident leaves many wondering whether President Jiang Zemin was deliberately misled by a Chinese military anxious to cover up the incompetence of its pilots.

Diplomatic sources believe the Chinese military blocked a swift resolution to the problem on three occasions when the Foreign Ministry had negotiated a climbdown not unlike the one announced.

A Politburo meeting on Tuesday could also have shortened the crisis but another attempt was made to seek concessions that were not forthcoming. Many are now speculating on what effect the incident will have on strained relations between the PLA generals and both Mr Jiang, who is head of the Central Military Commission, and the man expected to succeed him, Hu Jintao, another civilian.

The military's repeated efforts to determine China's foreign policy and control the handling of the Taiwan issue could have suffered a setback.

The implications this will have as the Communist Party selects leadership successors over the next three years are unpredictable, but new uncertainty has been added.

Mr Jiang may feel he has saved face only by America's willingness to juggle the meaning of words.

At last night's press conference, the translation for the expression 'very sorry' used in the US letter was qianyi - an ambiguous literary expression of regret and sorrow that admits no responsibility. State television news first chose to use the word daoqian - a formal expression of apology that admits guilt - and later said the United States had expressed qianyi and yihan , which can mean 'sorry' and 'regret'.

The Chinese public, whose feelings of outrage have been stoked by the media, will be satisfied both by this and the sight of US Ambassador Joseph Prueher arriving to present the letter to Beijing's Foreign Minister.

It may turn out that the Chinese have obtained secret promises from the US on, say, curbing arms sales to Taiwan. If not, it is hard to imagine what gains on the Chinese side have been worth the cost of confirming the worst prejudices about China in the US Congress and among US President George Bush's administration.

Mr Bush's calm handling of the first international crisis in his term of office, thanks partly to the patience of Admiral Prueher, will garner him praise and inspire confidence in his administration's next actions.

Certainly, the incident has ensured that China is now back at the top of America's foreign-policy concerns. Yet it could prove counter-productive for China's long-term interests to have tried and failed to humiliate Mr Bush when China needs US co-operation in so many areas.

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