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https://scmp.com/article/344893/striking-us

Striking the US

DEEP IN CHINA'S heartland, in the central province of Henan, a brigade of intercontinental ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads are reportedly aimed at the United States. The number of DF-5 missiles deployed in silos at the launch complexes around the Luoyang base of the PLA's Second Artillery force are estimated to range from four to 20.

In the unlikely event that Sino-US tensions ever escalated to the point where Beijing wanted to strike at continental US in an act of war, the missiles of the anonymous-sounding Base Number 54 are considered the most likely option.

It is hardly an overwhelming threat at present - especially since China insists its small nuclear arsenal is for retaliatory use only and the US has many times more missiles - but some US defence analysts warn it may pose a greater threat in the future, as they believe Beijing is poised to start strengthening its missile force.

'The Cox Report and other analyses predict that the Chinese nuclear force structure is likely to increase in size, and therefore pose a greater threat to the United States,' said respected China military analysts Bates Gill and James Mulvenon in a paper prepared for American intelligence agencies, which identified the Luoyang base as the location for missiles capable of hitting the US. Both are experts on China's nuclear arsenal.

Though the prospects of a nuclear confrontation are remote, the mainland's capability to wage war with the US - at some point in the future - will inevitably receive more attention as tensions mount following the spy-plane crisis and the ensuing acrimonious negotiations over the return of the crippled EP-3E electronic surveillance aircraft from Hainan.

The crisis has already prompted angry calls by ordinary Chinese on Internet chat rooms for their nation to acquire an aircraft carrier and prepare for a possible future war with the US.

Even before the April 1 collision between the surveillance aircraft and a PLA F-8 fighter jet, there had been warnings of a new Cold War developing between the world's remaining superpower and the emerging power across the Pacific.

Until now, the world has generally accepted China's claims that it is only interested in protecting its own territory and adopts a defensive posture. 'Their strategy has been to defend what they hold, 'protecting communism' if you like,' said analyst Andrew Brookes, of the International Institute of Strategic Studies in London. 'The idea that they slide out and capture Hawaii or Miami is not their thing.'

But defence experts worry that a growing impatience over Taiwan and continuing claims to the South China Sea, which have seen it claim areas near the Philippines, could lead China to a confrontation with the US.

The last time the two powers stood at the brink was in 1996 when the US sent two aircraft carrier battle groups close to Taiwan following the mainland's test firing of short-range missiles, in what was viewed as an attempt to influence the outcome of presidential elections on the island. At the time, General Xiong Guangkai - now the PLA's intelligence chief - made remarks which were widely interpreted as a veiled threat of nuclear strikes on America's west coast. He told a US academic that 'Americans care more about Los Angeles than Taiwan'.

Paul Beaver, of Jane's Defence Group, said any Chinese capability to strike at America was, at present, 'very limited' and could only be done by using intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). 'It would be a very futile strike. There would be one strike and there could be no other - the US would just obliterate them [in response],' he said.

Dr Mulvenon, an analyst at the Rand Corporation think-tank which has close relations with the US Air Force, said the PLA did not yet have warships or aircraft capable of striking at mainland USA.

Its one Xia-class nuclear submarine, capable of launching missiles, spends most of the time in dock and at least four more vessels would be needed to give China the backup to send one on a mission far from its shores, he said.

However, the mainland is reported to have started work in 1999 on a number of new advanced nuclear submarines, which are expected to be deployed in 2005 and will give it a greater capability. Its H-6 bomber aircraft, which is based on the Soviet Tu-16 'Badger' jet, do not have the range to reach the US west coast.

But Mr Beaver said he expected the PLA Navy to have purchased and made fully operational an aircraft carrier by 2012. This could give its fighters the extra range needed to get closer to the American mainland and US bases in Asia.

The Cox Report, prepared by a US Congress committee examining allegations of Chinese espionage, estimated that a modernisation programme would produce more ICBMs and warheads capable of blasting across the Pacific Ocean by 2015.

The report said the PLA's force of ICBMs could rise from approximately 20 to 100 within 14 years as it seeks to move them out of easily targeted silos and onto the backs of mobile trucks.

Alleging some US technology was stolen to assist China's missile modernisation, the report said the illicitly obtained information could allow those 100 missiles to carry up to 1,000 warheads. Beijing has denounced the Cox Report and denied its allegations of espionage.

Although the US and China agreed in 1998 not to target their missiles at each other, their treaty was viewed as largely symbolic as missiles can be quickly re-targeted. The Cox Report said it 'judged' that they were still aimed at the US.

Should China lash out at the US, it could expect to pay a high price. Military analysts say the might of the American military machine far outweighs the PLA.

So China has sought to draw larger circles of defence in areas outside the mainland where it hoped to be able to engage an adversary such as the US and avoid damage at home, said Dr Mulvenon. It had missiles targeting Taiwan as well as at US forces in Japan and South Korea. 'China could not lay back and afford to take it; the US Air Force would pickle their system,' said Dr Mulvenon.

In the meantime, a debate continues about whether China's growing missile forces pose a threat to the US, or are designed to create a more effective deterrence against attack on itself.

In their paper, Dr Gill, of the Brookings Institution, and Dr Mulvenon conclude that the Cox Report has misinterpreted the PLA's modernisation of its nuclear forces. They say a new generation of missiles being developed, such as the DF-31 and the long-range DF-41, could be merely to replace the older veterans of the fleet and increase the credibility of its deterrence posture.

However, the defence analysts worry about China's shorter-range missiles which could be used against US forces and bases in Asia.

Glenn Schloss ([email protected]) is a staff writer for the Post's Editorial Pages