Animals to be used for earthquake prediction in Japan

Seismologists paying attention to nervous dogs are no longer barking up the wrong tree, as Japanese researchers turn to animals in a ground-breaking development in the imprecise art of earthquake prediction.

Researchers at Azabu University in Kanagawa Prefecture, near Tokyo, plan to set up a network of 'Quake Farms' to predict when and where a quake will hit next. The farms will breed animals believed to have powers of quake prediction.

As soon as animals at more than two centres display simultaneous erratic behaviour, an earthquake alert will be issued.

Earthquakes, and the fear of quakes, exert a strong influence over the national psyche. Most homes have a quake survival kit comprising bandages, water and water purification tablets. Schools and businesses conduct evacuation drills with all the appearance and precision of a military drill.

The task of quake prediction is an endeavour of almost Holy Grail status in Japan, a country that straddles two fault lines. In 1995 a quake devastated the city of Kobe, killing 5,000 people. It was this event that led directly to the development of the animal farms.

Days before the quake on January 16, Kobe residents reportedly noted that dogs began to bark incessantly. Cats were also reported to be acting in a strange fashion and peacocks could be heard crying for hours on end. The city's rubbish dumps reported fewer rats scurrying around than normal.

These reports were initially written off as old wives' tales, but have now been given the weight of prophecies.

The quake farms will specialise in breeding these animals as well as snakes and horses, both sensitive to seismic shifts, according to researchers.

Tokyo is hit by a major earthquake about every 70 years. The last devastating one was in 1923.

Japan's Central Disaster Management Council released an estimate in August predicting at least 8,000 deaths, the destruction of 230,000 homes and daily economic losses of 340 billion yen (about HK$21.7 billion) if a quake struck.

This forecast was derided as far too conservative, as most estimates put the expected deaths at least five times this figure.

A successful prediction would result in casualty figures being reduced by 75 per cent if adequate evacuation procedures were followed, researchers say.

The greatest danger in basing quake predictions on animal behaviour is that seismologists may cry wolf once too often, but at the beginning of the 21st century no other system better than a bark has yet been devised.