The clash of order and disorder
We do not hear much about 'the clash of civilisations' anymore. That is partly because the war against terrorism has been waged with extraordinary attention to collateral damage. Civilian casualties are always tragic, but the international hostility to the recent US-led actions have led to even greater scrutiny and even more careful war planning. This has defused charges that the west has targeted Muslims indiscriminately.
The west also gets credit for trying to rebuild the shattered nations of Iraq and Afghanistan. The international coalitions that ousted the Taleban and Saddam Hussein have worked to give those countries new constitutions that protect all their citizens. It has also sent economic and human assistance to help them develop and prosper.
A more significant reason for the diminished talk about a clash of civilisations is the growing realisation that the terrorists are just that - killers who have no concern for human life. This is not a struggle between civilisations, at all. It is a battle between order and disorder, modernity and pre-feudalism. In this battle, in sharp contrast to the west, the terrorists take lives indiscriminately. There is a long list of atrocities as sad proof.
The attacks on the World Trade Centre struck at the heart of the United States, but the victims came from more than 20 countries. Southeast Asian governments long denied that they faced an internal threat, but they were forced to acknowledge the truth, however reluctantly, by the discovery of terrorist cells in Singapore, the Bali and JW Marriott bombings in Indonesia, and scattered attacks in southern Thailand.
The Indonesian bombings are not the only attacks by Islamic extremists against fellow Muslims. In fact, since September 11, the majority of terrorist attacks have been in Islamic countries, almost all against 'soft targets', guaranteeing that most of the victims are civilians. No matter what the rationale, the simple truth is that the perpetrators of these crimes are interested only in achieving their goals: the body count - and who the victims are - just does not matter.
Events in Iraq provide another twist to this bloody conflict. At first, resistance forces claimed to be nationalists, but that fiction did not last long. The defeated forces there soon turned against each other. It is unclear who is responsible for the latest outrages: the possibilities include Baathists, al Qaeda or other Muslims with other political agendas.
In recent weeks, there have been rising numbers of attacks against Iraqis. Last week horrific bombings claimed hundreds of lives, and wounded hundreds more. Unlike previous attacks, these now target Iraqis, and appear aimed at influencing domestic political developments within that country. The division between moderate and extremist Muslims has attracted most of the attention in recent months. But the largest divide within the Islamic faith is much deeper: it separates Sunnis and Shiites in many countries, and it is centuries old.
The focus of this conflict is in the Middle East and Central Asia, but it could reach Southeast Asia. Many young Southeast Asians are getting their education at madrassas, religious schools, in the Middle East and Pakistan, that are funded by the Wahabi sect that dominates Saudi Arabia. There they learn the extreme neo-Salafi teachings that have provided a theoretical underpinning for Osama bin Laden and al Qaeda. Similar schools are now being established within the region.
These teachings challenge the more moderate form of Islam found throughout Southeast Asia. While the extremists are even more of a minority in Southeast Asia, the elections that will be held across the region this year give them a chance to spread their views more widely. The stakes are especially high in Malaysia and Indonesia, states run by moderate Islamic governments. In both countries, radicals are increasingly vocal, both to tap voter dissatisfaction as well as to differentiate themselves from more centrist, pragmatic parties.
Even if these views do not prevail in the election, they can shift the political discourse by moving the centre of gravity away from the middle of the political spectrum. That process will help legitimate or provide cover for more extreme voices.
There is no immunity from this contagion. Fighting it takes good governance, the recognition that the threat is real, and police and intelligence efforts to combat it. Having tossed aside the fiction that the war against terror is a 'clash of civilisations', progress is being made on all fronts.
Brad Glosserman is director of research at Pacific Forum CSIS, a Honolulu-based think-tank