Death of the democratic dream
The siege of Sunni-dominated Fallujah and popular uprisings in several Shi'ite cities may have finally destroyed the Bush administration's Iraq fantasy. Washington's dream of a western-oriented, liberal democratic order friendly to America and its allies dissipated in a hail of gunfire.
The US can win any set-piece battle against any opposing force. However, Washington found that it has no friends in Iraq. When it needed support from the Iraqis, on whose behalf American soldiers were dying, there was none.
The Iraqi Governing Council formally denounced militant cleric Moktada al-Sadr, but also called for 'an immediate ceasefire and the reliance on political solutions in all areas of the country'. Most members said nothing. The panel's only active intervention was to suggest a deal through which Mr Sadr, accused of murder, would not be arrested.
Mr Sadr is a minor figure with a limited following, reportedly disliked by more moderate clerics such as Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani. Yet he treated Mr Sadr and the occupation authority as moral equivalents, counselling moderation on both sides. Some tribal leaders helped to peacefully end the takeover of the city of Kut by Mr Sadr's forces, but others brought letters of support to his Mahdi army.
Also noteworthy for abandoning America were the Iraqi security forces trained by the US. Up to one-quarter of the police, Iraqi Civil Defence Corps, and military personnel have quit, refused to fight, or changed sides. In fact, civil defence guards may have led the four contractors for Blackwater USA into a trap in Fallujah, before they were killed and their bodies burned.
Where were the mass of Iraqis? Most did not join the uprising. Some undoubtedly are genuinely committed to a liberal, democratic future.
However, those who acted, Sunni and Shi'ite alike, almost all joined in attacking coalition forces. The diverse mix of terrorists, insurgents, militiamen and rioters may remain small, but the number is growing. Even a relatively modest number of violent resisters is likely to dominate an inert silent majority, assuming one exists.
Unfortunately, these events are likely to be just the beginning. Insurgents will now roam in Shi'ite as well as Sunni areas. Some occupation enthusiasts suggest responding with greater repression. But, for good reason, America and its allies do not have the stomach for such a brutal approach.
We should all hope that Iraq eventually makes its way towards democracy. But we should have no illusions about imposing that model on a people who are growing increasingly restive under a foreign occupation. Instead of attempting to live out its unrealistic democratic dream, the administration must begin planning a full withdrawal of US forces, alongside turning sovereignty over to Iraq.
Doug Bandow is a senior fellow at the Cato Institute in Washington