Talking turkey

Make the most of your turkey feast this year, because if the direst predictions about bird flu and what it's doing to our bird life and domestic poultry come true, poultry, including turkey may become a rare treat.

Last week, I listened to some powerful discussions about avian influenza (H5N1) at a conference organised by the Australian Universities International Alumni. 'You don't need a human to wipe out the planet - bird flu can do it,' said Professor Kennedy Shortridge, retired professor of microbiology at the University of Hong Kong and the man who first identified avian influenza in humans in Hong Kong in 1997.

'I'm very worried about the present situation,' he said. 'We're on a knife edge at the moment. If this virus gets into bird life, we could cause the destruction of the bird eco system. We could cause ecocide. Something has happened. We're getting a lot of infections from animals. HIV/Aids came from animals. '

Many experts say the avian flu has been spread among chickens in Asia by migratory birds flying south for the winter, but Shortridge has a different theory. He says it's caused by humans, particularly our dirty habits and the way we treat animals - much the way Sars developed.

' I think it's quite simple,' he said. 'It's day-to-day activities, involving poor hygiene and poor biosecurity.'

Shortridge illustrated this by showing the conference a picture of a farmer riding a bicycle with a stack of chicken coops on the back. Why was this the culprit? Because carrying the birds this way meant they were dropping faeces and feathers over other farms, into the soil and water supply, as he carried the birds to market or back to his farm.

The professor said that, even if avian flu didn't evolve to the point at which it was passed from human to human easily - the step that would make it the most lethal virus of modern times - it's already threatening to destroy bird life.

In particular, poultry stocks and the way we farm poultry are seriously threatened already. 'It has already killed over 10 million birds,' he said.

Shortridge said southern China has long been an epicentre for influenza and other infections from animals because large numbers of humans and animals crowd into small spaces here.

Added to that, waterfowl, particularly ducks, are now being farmed in an unnatural environment, often mixing too closely with chickens. 'Domesticated duck has been part of a beautiful eco-system. It lived in the water of rice paddies and moved off at the time of harvest to the waterways. The duck is the reservoir.'

H5N1 was not seen in chickens until recently. It usually causes no symptoms in ducks, but in chickens, it's lethal. It's also lethal in humans - currently, two-thirds of those who get it die.

Shortridge said scientists tracking H5N1 have seen that it's 'drifting' - parts of its genetic makeup have been changing quickly, evolving into a very effective version of itself.

The 'Z genotype killer virus' is that version and has spread throughout Asia, becoming endemic in the poultry flocks of this region.

Is it a hopeless situation? Not yet, said Shortridge. 'What I think we have to have is political will.'

Referring to the introduction of freer speech and information in the USSR in the 1980s, he called for 'a new glasnost, an influenza glasnost if you will'.

You need good surveillance, good viral surveillance and good governance, not just in governments, but in those who interact with government. 'Here in Hong Kong, we showed that being alert to new viruses - good surveillance - and acting quickly could stop the virus getting a foothold in humans,' Shortridge said. 'In my view, the world owes Hong Kong a debt of gratitude for averting an influenza pandemic in 1997.'

However, information sharing, good surveillance and early warnings were not happening often enough in the region to give Shortridge confidence the 'big one' - the pandemic many are waiting for - will be prevented. Only if we stop abusing our animal food sources, keeping them in overcrowded filthy conditions and mixing species that do not mix in nature, will we have a chance.

'H5N1 is still smouldering. It hasn't taken off, yet something strange is happening. Only when we are at peace with nature will disease begin to melt away.'