A wobble on the diplomatic tightrope

Many Australians would hold to the view that, given the inexorable rise of China in the Asia-Pacific region during this century, their country perhaps ought to become less wedded to the US. But, if you are aspiring to be Australia's next foreign affairs minister, making a statement like this appears fraught with danger.

Robert McClelland - who is the shadow minister for foreign affairs and, if his Australian Labor Party wins a general election later this year, will replace long-serving Alexander Downer in this portfolio - discovered this in the past few days. In the Sunday Age newspaper last weekend, he made remarks that would appear uncontroversial.

One 'can't ignore the fact that China is going to be a major economic and military power in our region', he said, adding that one 'can't assume that forever and a day the United States will have the predominance of influence that it has'.

Australia should therefore be wary about signing defence pacts with countries such as Japan - Prime Minister John Howard announced in March that Canberra was entering a security co-operation agreement with Tokyo - or holding defence talks with the US, Japan and India, but excluding China, he said.

In short, it is in Australia's long-term interests to keep an active eye on China's rise, while it maintains its historically friendly relationship with Japan and the US - the other superpowers of the Asia-Pacific.

While one is tempted to argue he was merely stating the obvious, it would appear that he hit a raw nerve among his party colleagues. Leader Kevin Rudd, who has worked in China and is regarded as an expert, has been busily fending off criticism that if he becomes Australia's next prime minister, his government would be too sensitive, or even subservient, to China.

This no doubt played a major part in Mr McClelland issuing a statement, hours after the Sunday Age hit the news-stands. He was at pains to point out that he is a strong supporter of the US in the Asia-Pacific region, and he is merely opposed to defence pacts that would oblige parties to automatically go to war. Mr McClelland said his remarks were not 'on the decline of American power, but rather focused on China's rapidly increasing economic and military power and how Australia should respond'.

But has he overreacted in his desire to ensure the Americans do not believe he is advocating that Australia tilt the balance in China's favour?

Most Australians have a positive attitude towards China and it is not seen as a threat to Australia's security. Opinion polls have also shown over the past few years that many Australians are concerned about the close relationship Mr Howard has with US President George W. Bush.

Perhaps this is why even Mr McClelland's opponent, Mr Downer, has sought to distance Australia from the US on dealing with China. In 2004, Mr Downer opined that if the US came to Taiwan's aid in the event of a mainland military strike, one should not assume Australia would line up alongside the Americans.

And guess who described Mr Downer's comments on that occasion as irresponsible? None other than Mr McClelland's boss - Mr Rudd.

Greg Barns is a political commentator in Australia and a former Australian government adviser