Countries should prepare for downturn in China
As China's first full year of rebalancing draws to a close, how has President Xi Jinping done? Reasonably well, it seems. Growth appears to be moderating gently, stocks continue to soar and most economists still foresee a soft landing rather than a market-shaking meltdown.
Next year, however, Xi's team will have to get to the hard stuff: taming an opaque, unwieldy financial system. My question isn't so much whether China will or won't crash. It's whether the rest of Asia is ready for the possibility of 5 per cent or even 4 per cent Chinese economic growth. It's almost certainly not.
Historically, hedge funds betting against the mainland haven't done very well. Today, Beijing is expected to revise gross domestic product figures for last year upwards by as much as US$275 billion, which on paper should help meet its target of 7.5 per cent growth for the year.
For anyone who thinks China is operating even close to that number, I have two words: iron ore. Even more than the plunge in oil, the halving of prices for these pivotal rocks and minerals - as well as a 44 per cent dive in oil and tumble in coal and other commodities - suggests China may be braking rapidly.
It's important to remember that however large, China's economy is no more developed than South Korea's was when it imploded in 1997. The Chinese financial system is less evolved than that of the Philippines and less open than Indonesia's.
China's US$3.9 trillion of currency reserves are useful when market turmoil hits, as has happened in emerging markets this week. But that stash is dwarfed by the US$19 trillion in credit extended by the banking system since the 2008 Lehman crisis, according to Charlene Chu of Autonomous Research Asia. And remember: the vast and opaque shadow banking system obscures Beijing's true liabilities.
Many policymakers appear to believe the worst is over. In the past year, they stress, the leaders have taken bold steps to shift growth away from excessive investment and exports towards consumption and services. But it's a fantasy to think 10 per cent growth will soon return - or even 7.5 per cent.
"With China intent on continuing reform to generate quality growth at a lower level, the rest of Asia cannot expect any help in terms of overall demand," said Simon Grose-Hodge, the head of South Asia investment strategy at LGT Group in Singapore.
That means China's neighbours can no longer put off the task of rebalancing their own economies - away from dependence on China's. They, too, need to develop vibrant, diversified domestic economies that are driven more by services and innovation than exports.
The to-do list is long. Despite a flurry of bilateral trade negotiations and talk of a more unified market in Southeast Asia, trade barriers within the region are still far too high. Governments need to do more to support non-resource industries to make their economies more competitive and nimble. That includes offering incentives to small to medium-sized companies to innovate and enter new markets.
Above all, nations need to draw up contingency plans for Chinese-related market turmoil. This may not come to pass. Wages and salaries in China are expected to rise 6.5 per cent this quarter, while productivity is seen growing 4.1 per cent. Even as China ratchets down growth, it's thus continuing to produce legions of new consumers.
But several years of painful and unpredictable restructuring lie ahead. No matter how skilful Xi is, there's a decent chance the whole thing will go haywire. And just as Asia once used to rise and fall with US consumers, the region would be devastated by a sudden and deep Chinese slowdown. Nations would be best if they start bracing for the worst.
Bloomberg