Source:
https://scmp.com/comment/letters/article/3108077/trump-or-biden-china-will-be-firing-line Letters
Trump or Biden, China will be in the firing line
- The anti-China sentiment stoked by the Trump administration and the pandemic mean China must step up its preparedness to show it will not be bullied any longer
A delivery courier rides a motorbike decorated with a portrait of US President Donald Trump and “Trump 2020” flags in Beijing on October 14. Chinese leaders hope Washington will tone down conflicts over trade, technology and security if Joe Biden wins the presidential election. But any shift is likely to be in style, not substance, as frustration with Beijing increases across the American political spectrum. Photo: AP
In an already volatile and uncertain world, US President Donald Trump will go down in history as the greatest disruptor of our era and his policies will set the stage for the coming decade. What would four more years under Trump mean?
More of the same policies, pushing us all closer to World War III. The number of lives lost and amount of bloodshed may be lower, but the impact will be felt around the world, perhaps even more so than the effects of Covid-19. This period will henceforth be known as “the great reset”.
Even if Democratic Party candidate Joe Biden were to take over, the die has been cast, distrust of and anger against China and all things Asian have already taken root in the psyche of the Western world, especially the Five Eyes intelligence sharing network. Politically, the world will become even more polarised. For small states to stay neutral and thrive will truly be the mark of great statesmanship.
Unfortunately, China will not be able to rewrite this narrative. It will have two choices – to hold its ground or attack. Although the Chinese government would have calculated its position, President Xi Jinping’s officials, who succeeded in Pax Americana, may have yet to realise that the rules of engagement have changed and that they need to rethink their approach to the West.
No matter who wins the presidency, anti-China rhetoric will remain a fact, as policies will try to force China to open up its tightly controlled domestic market . The forced decoupling will simply mean that China will have the opportunity to create its own rules of engagement with the rest of the world. However, for China to have peace, it must win this war with the Western world. To achieve this, it needs a highly trained and technologically advanced military and enough allies who can be counted on not to switch sides. This conflict will encompass outer space, and control of satellite and other technology will be crucial. China is still decades behind in this area.
Without the Trump presidency, China would possibly have gladly gone on with the prevailing world order, being the manufacturer of the world. The rise of anti-China sentiment stoked by Trump and the pandemic has forced China’s hand; it must step up to a more confrontational world and show that it will no longer be bullied.
The Belt and Road programme may take a back seat, but the end of the 21st century will belong to China. It is just a matter of when China steps up to take its place and how painful the rise will be.
Suzanne Ho, Singapore