Source:
https://scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3015859/whether-its-china-or-iran-donald-trump-deserves-some-credit-his Comment
Whether it’s China or Iran, Donald Trump deserves some credit for his foreign policy doctrine
- In calling off a strike against Iran, the US president has demonstrated his ability to keep a cool head. His critics won’t acknowledge it, but his foreign policy doctrine has so far served him well with Iran, North Korea and China
Despite the hawkish advice of his staff, US President Donald Trump decided not to bomb Iran. Some of his supporters, and even many of his detractors, will say this is evidence of a clear-thinking decision maker. Photo: AFP
President Donald Trump’s decision not to bomb Iran in retaliation for the downing of an unmanned American drone has once again raised questions about just what his foreign policy doctrine is.
Since his inauguration, policy analysts have characterised his doctrine as some combination of strong-arm tactics and unilateral action, yet there have been few international incidents which serve to define what he will do in a time of crisis.
The drone incident has proved instructive in this regard. Despite the hawkish advice of his national security staff, including Secretary of State Mike Pompeo and national security adviser John Bolton, Trump chose a path of moderation and common sense.
Some of his supporters, and even many of his detractors, will say this is evidence of a clear-thinking decision maker who understands the proportionality principle and is sensitive to consequences of his decisions. This is a side of Trump most Americans (and the world) have not seen: a cool, level-headed and cautious leader.
In the cases of Iran, North Korea and China, the Trump doctrine might be characterised as a combination of engagement, bluster, willpower, negotiation skills and brinkmanship. In each case, Trump has been willing to toss out the old playbook and implement a new strategy.
The result, in each case, has been partial success, though the final outcome remains unknown. Trump’s critics will probably never acknowledge that he has achieved anything, but consider this: North Korea’s Kim Jong-un is in a holding pattern, Chinese President Xi Jinping has been backed into a corner on the bilateral trade issue, and Iran is in a very difficult economic situation.
While Trump’s tactics remain highly objectionable to many in America and abroad, he is, in fact, getting plenty of things done.
The world has come to expect the US to continue playing by the set of international rules it was instrumental in establishing. It is not accustomed to thinking of the US as a change agent.
This is where Trump has excelled. The truth is that the international order has been ripe for fundamental change. Rather than wait for the rest of the world to decide if, when, or how it will change, Trump has taken over the steering wheel.
If, in the case of Iran, Trump had chosen to follow standard diplomatic protocol and wait for the Europeans to agree to scrap the Iran nuclear deal, he would still be waiting, for they had no intention of agreeing.
Part of his doctrine is to call a spade a spade and move on. He noted during his presidential campaign that America does not have time for political correctness; given the problems that plague the US and the world, there is similarly little time for diplomatic protocol and consensus.
For another example, China has not responded well to previous US administrations’ requests to modify its behaviour, with regard to issues such as its trade surplus with the US and intellectual property theft. There was little alternative but to do what Trump has done.
There will continue to be shrieks of outrage at Trump’s actions in the foreign policy arena, but this is not a popularity contest. A country can either lead, or be led. And the US is in the habit of leading, albeit not in a Trumpian manner.
The only other country that is pursuing global leadership – and on its own terms – is, of course, China. One can certainly legitimately criticise how Trump is doing what he is doing, but it is more difficult to challenge why he is doing it.
History may not be kind to Trump’s tactics, but historians might find that his boldness was not just warranted at this juncture in history, but welcome.
With China’s rise, Iran’s nuclear ambition and North Korea’s troubling nature, this is an era for leaders who care less about protocol and more about getting things done.
Trump happens to excel at disruption on a grand scale. There will continue to be plenty of obstacles in his path, but chances are he will make progress, no matter how many feathers he might ruffle along the way.
Daniel Wagner is CEO of Country Risk Solutions and author of the new book China Vision