Beijing may be ruthless, but it’s not stupid

These days, right-wing American ideologues like to claim that Beijing is preparing Tiananmen 2.0 for Hong Kong. Here are a few fine specimens, respectively from the New York Post and The Wall Street Journal: “Beijing is prepping for a massacre in Hong Kong”; “The Coming Hong Kong Crackdown: The protests are the most stunning rebuke to Beijing since Tiananmen Square. They may end the same way.”

Under the guise of concern for our welfare and freedom, they are baying for a bloody crackdown. Why? Because that would provide the pretext for hawks in Washington to expand their fight against China on multiple fronts including, possibly, the use of military force.

I argued yesterday that there was a low probability of PLA deployment in Hong Kong. But even if it happens, it won’t be a repeat of June 4. The PLA today is nothing like it was in 1989.

After decades of modernisation, its troops are much better trained and equipped than the country bumpkins who were sent into Beijing 30 years ago.

In any case, troops would be deployed under Hong Kong’s Garrison Law, which means those already stationed here; they are disciplined troops who have had extensive anti-riot drills, especially after the Occupy protests of 2014. They will use standard non-lethal gear, most likely alongside Hong Kong police.

But why not machine-gun us? Beijing may be ruthless, but it is not stupid. It has already decided that Hong Kong cannot be trusted to be part of the nation’s development strategies. The latest unrest simply reinforces that conviction. Instead, Shanghai will be the financial centre and Shenzhen the hi-tech hub. Why risk international sanctions for a downgraded city and undermine two key mainland cities in the way China was punished by the West after 1989?

Even a non-bloody troops deployment in Hong Kong would virtually guarantee Taiwan President Tsai Ing-wen an election victory for a second term in January. A bloody crackdown would permanently boost her Democratic Progressive Party and other Taiwan parties seeking outright independence and may even radicalise the Kuomintang.

President Xi Jinping dearly wants a resolution of the trade war. If the deployment of troops cannot be avoided, he needs to defend it to the Americans that it’s no different from US deployment of its own troops on American soil.

Former chief Tung Chee-hwa says US and Taiwan masterminded protests

After all, Trump has done it for much less: stationing troops near the borders with Mexico to deter Latin American refugees.

To do so, Chinese troops cannot use lethal force.