Hong Kong must pull back from the abyss and avoid a bloody ending or it may never recover

The worst crisis ever faced by Hong Kong is getting even worse day by day, hour by hour, minute by minute. We are staring at a bottomless abyss into which we are about to fall, but we feel powerless to stop it. This is the time for the people to put aside our differences and, together, try to save what we can of our beloved hometown.

There is one thing we want and need: the immediate restoration of law and order, so we can all go back to a semblance of normal life. There should be zero tolerance for violence and intimidation in a civilised society. The law must apply to everyone, regardless of race, colour, creed, national origin, gender and shirt colour.

We must not condone behaviour reminiscent of the Red Guards during China’s Cultural Revolution or the Brownshirts of the Nazi Party in pre-World-War-II Germany.

There are two things the people of Hong Kong do not want to see. First, the continuing and escalating chaos, disruption of transport and other public services, and violence. And second, the possible intervention of the central government to restore order.

However, if the first is not stopped soon, it may easily lead to the second. And acts of vandalism against symbols of national sovereignty do not help. We are right on that verge now.

If that happens, it will “prove” that the “one country, two systems” formula does not work. It will also lead to international sanctions against China, including Hong Kong. Such a development will spell the end of Hong Kong as an international financial centre, as a logistics and trading hub, and as a tourist mecca.

Hong Kong will be in economic recession for at least five years, shunned by both mainlanders and the international business community, an experience from which we may never recover. It will also set the mainland economy back but it will be able to survive and continue to grow.

Who will benefit from either one of these scenarios? What is bad for Hong Kong as an international financial centre is likely to be good for Singapore. Singapore will be the principal recipient of any capital, talent and wealth that leave Hong Kong because of our social instability, with or without the intervention of the People’s Liberation Army. Supporters of Taiwan independence in Taiwan will benefit politically from the “proven” failure of “one country, two systems” in Hong Kong.

The United States will also use PLA entry as the rationale for sanctions on China, including Hong Kong. Some in the US will see this as an opportunity to slow Chinese economic growth and hence reduce the potential competition and threat from a rising China. Everyone who has sold Hong Kong assets short will also benefit.

The people of Hong Kong, especially those not in a position to migrate, will be the losers. That is not what most Hong Kong people want to see happen.

There are, of course, some extremists among the demonstrators who behave as if they will not stop until they succeed in goading the government into calling for the PLA to restore order. Perhaps their assumption is that, ultimately, the central government will decide not to do so.

But it is definitely not a risk worth taking for Hong Kong. It is also unclear what some of the violent demonstrators hope to accomplish with their guerilla tactics, disrupting the lives of large numbers of ordinary people everywhere.

The extradition bill is dead, whether formally withdrawn or not. The only other demand that may possibly be implemented is the establishment of an independent commission of inquiry with a broad mandate. However, it is unlikely to happen without the full restoration of law and order first.

I can fully understand the feelings of the large number of peaceful participants in the marches. They are angry with the perceived arrogance and unresponsiveness of the Hong Kong government. To them, I say, it is time to reflect on what can be accomplished and what can be lost by continuing the marches.

Ten steps to end Hong Kong’s crisis

The last few initially peaceful marches all ended in violence. If the objective were only to get the government to admit its mistake in the handling of the extradition bill, the cost to Hong Kong is already far too high. We should leave it to history to render a judgment.

After all, no Chinese leader has ever admitted the mistake of the Great Leap Forward, and no US leader has ever admitted that the Iraq war was a mistake. Instead, we should focus on how Hong Kong can move forward. We should not play into the hands of those who wish to see a violent and bloody ending.

As I look at our young people, I cannot help thinking of the story of the Pied Piper of Hamelin. They are being led by self-interested and unscrupulous local and external forces down a dead end. They will bear all the negative consequences whereas the instigators will get off scot-free. Like lemmings, they are heading for the edge of a cliff, one following another.

What can we do? We should treat with healthy scepticism the fake news and fraudulent polls flooding social media. We should say no to illegal assemblies and demonstrations. We should condemn violence in all forms. We should treat everybody with courtesy and respect, whether we like them or not. We should encourage one another to soften our voices and listen to others.

In so doing, we hope to lower the overall temperature of our society and reduce the negative energy. We must avoid the abyss.

Lawrence J. Lau is Ralph and Claire Landau Professor of Economics, Lau Chor Tak Institute of Global Economics and Finance at the Chinese University of Hong Kong