China’s sovereign power more important than ‘one country two systems’
- Ending special customs recognition with US would be bad for all sides, and Beijing would not be held hostage by an American law that would allow Hong Kong’s unrestrained political development
It’s both amusing and depressing that so many young local people waved the American flag while marching to the United States consulate in Central to demand the US president – a xenophobe, sexual predator and proven serial liar – to “liberate” Hong Kong.
They also demanded the US Congress pass the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act, which could end the city’s special customs status and imperil its whole economy.
Some of my long-time hate fans blasted my column yesterday, which they claim distorted the Civic Party’s support for the bill and misrepresented the bill itself.
What I did yesterday was to address the damage it could have on Hong Kong. I didn’t have the space to lay out the party’s arguments and rebut them. I will do that now.
Everyone agrees that ending Hong Kong’s special customs status with the US will be bad for all sides, including the Americans.
Effectively, it will end “one country, two systems” as far as Washington is concerned, thereby rendering Hong Kong as “just another mainland city”. Given the preponderant influence of the US within the international system, other countries, especially its allies, will likely follow suit.
It is the “nuclear option” that hopefully will never be used. The bill, if passed, will make that nuclear option available to Washington. It will be the Sword of Damocles hanging over the heads of Hong Kong and Chinese officials to restrain Beijing and make it respect Hong Kong’s autonomy and freedom. So the theory goes. It’s possible it will work out that way.
More likely, it will achieve the opposite.
Why would Beijing let itself be held hostage by an American law that would allow Hong Kong’s unrestrained political development? It would rather call for an early end to one country, two systems than lose control of the city. But it doesn’t have to. It will simply do what it has been doing and dare the Americans to do something about it.
Washington will either respond or it won’t. Either way, China can live with the consequences. Once it has decided that even the worst-case scenario is acceptable, everything short of that is a bonus.
As for the bill’s powers of sanction against Hong Kong officials, Beijing’s carrot and stick will be far more incentivising than any threats Washington can make about freezing their US assets or denying them entry.
So, let’s stop the child’s play.