Hong Kong democrats must not make city a pawn in the US-China power struggle

Hong Kong’s pro-democrat opposition enjoyed two apparent victories last week. On November 24, their parties won majorities on nearly all district councils at local elections. And, three days later, US President Donald Trump signed the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act.

The election victory – with a 71 per cent turnout – delivered a clear message to the government, with around 57 per cent voting for pro-democrats and 42 per cent for pro-government groups.

However, the pan-democrats are surely mistaken if they think the measures passed in Washington are a cause for celebration.

On the face of it, the US is tightening its existing laws that give Hong Kong separate treatment from mainland China in economic affairs. The State Department will check on an annual basis whether Hong Kong’s autonomy is being maintained. In theory, this could lead to Hong Kong losing its separate status (though the president can remove that status on his own anyway).

The new law also says that the US supports democratic development in Hong Kong – though this is simply a gesture.

Perhaps the most serious-sounding part of the new law concerns possible sanctions against Hong Kong or mainland officials who violate human rights. This has encouraged local activists to compile lists of such officials. The sanctions would include US visa bans and the freezing of assets in the US.

The key thing is that this is symbolic grandstanding by US politicians. Some of these figures are major critics of China as a strategic rival to the US. Others are more focused on the trade dispute between the two countries. It would be a huge mistake to imagine that they really care about Hong Kong. They are driven by their own foreign policy, trade and domestic agendas and nothing else.

Hong Kong activists waving American flags to thank the US are being naive, at best. If they believe they can somehow leverage the US legislation as a way of influencing the Hong Kong or Chinese governments, they are hugely mistaken.

Chinese officials have made their dislike of the US measures very clear. They see it as interference in the country’s internal affairs and part of a plan to hold China back.

Even if you see those officials as basically addressing their own mainland domestic audience, it should be clear that they genuinely believe the US use of Hong Kong is an aggressive and hostile move. It is at least a way to put extra pressure on China in the ongoing dispute over economic relations. At worst, if it seems to involve the local opposition, it looks like an attempt to undermine national sovereignty.

None of this can benefit Hong Kong. If the US takes action to downgrade our separate economic status, that alone could potentially cause serious harm to Hong Kong. On top of that, we can be certain that China would retaliate. Trade, investment and other relations between the two countries would suffer – and Hong Kong would be caught in an even worse situation.

The US could make Hong Kong pay over extradition bill

Another serious danger is that Chinese officials think Hong Kong people are actively showing loyalty to the US against the nation. That will send a message that Hong Kong cannot be trusted with autonomy.

The mistrust between China and the US is worrying enough for our city as a major business and trading centre. Trying to use the disputes between China and the US as leverage in our own political problems is a very foolish and dangerous thing to do.

As I say, the Hong Kong Human Rights and Democracy Act is largely symbolic. Although Beijing obviously opposes it, most observers think that it will not lead to a serious breakdown in the vital relationship between the US and China.

Hong Kong’s pro-democrats should not play with fire. They have more constructive ways to make their point.

That brings us back to the election victory. District councils are not politically powerful bodies. But they do have an impact over local issues and therefore residents’ lives. There is an opportunity for the incoming council members to show their local constituents and the broader community whether they can do better. It is a chance for them to prove themselves.

Maybe pan-democrats can use their new influence in district affairs to positively help the community. If so, they will do far more to boost their cause and benefit Hong Kong than by backing US moves to provoke China.

Bernard Chan is convenor of Hong Kong's Executive Council