Source:
https://scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3051079/coronavirus-was-no-black-swan-hong-kong-and-china-just-werent-ready
Comment/ Opinion

The coronavirus was no black swan. Hong Kong and China just weren’t ready for a crisis

  • Lessons that should have been learned after the harrowing Sars experience were not: diseases like Covid-19 will happen from time to time in a hyper-connected world, and the trust and transparency that will fortify a society’s response to such a crisis is lacking
People wearing protective masks stand on a viewing terrace at Victoria Peak in Hong Kong on February 3. Hong Kong needs strong community bonds, including those between the government and people, to survive the coronavirus and other crises. Photo: Bloomberg

Why has the response to the Covid-19 outbreak been so panicked, both by the Hong Kong and Chinese people and their governments? Is there anything we can do to help us get through what is likely to be another difficult month or months?

First, we need to accept that we live in a time of hyper-global diseases. In the early 1830s, cholera took two years to make its way from India to England. Covid-19 jumped continents in weeks, just as the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak did in 2003.

Some of that might have to do with the way these diseases reproduce, but most of it has to do with the ease and speed with which people and goods move around the world.

Covid-19 is no black swan – the coronavirus that causes it was one we’d been waiting for, one that reminds us of the brittleness of globalisation. We have had 17 years to learn the lessons of Sars. Along the way, we had warnings in the form of avian flus and the Nipa virus. Businesses have had wake-up calls from the Fukushima nuclear disaster and the 2011 Thai floods, both of which disrupted brittle supply chains and showed the need for more resilience in operations.

The response to Covid-19 shows above all else the weaknesses of China’s one-party model as well as its strengths. Of course, it’s impressive that hospitals can be built quickly and medical personnel mobilised.

But would all of this have been necessary if Wuhan and Hubei authorities had not engaged in the initial cover-up? No. Given China’s record of secrecy on Sars and Covid-19, can we have confidence that there will not be a cover-up next time? No.

This secrecy largely explains the panic. People do not believe or trust the Hong Kong or Chinese governments. I get an interesting answer when I ask about the seemingly low Covid-19 fatality rates.

Chinese and non-Chinese friends, medical experts and non-specialists say: can you believe those numbers, can you believe the government? This is lesson two: trust matters.

During Sars, people in Hong Kong believed their government. I don’t want to mythologise Sars as some golden era – it was a long and scary winter and spring in 2003. Many mistakes were made. The death toll of 299 included eight medical workers.

But the only panic buying lasted barely a day. Daily Hong Kong government briefings kept the public fully informed about the number and location of new cases, as well as deaths and recoveries.

Shoppers stock up at a Wellcome store in Quarry Bay in April 2003, during the Sars outbreak. Panic buying lasted barely one day. Photo: SCMP
Shoppers stock up at a Wellcome store in Quarry Bay in April 2003, during the Sars outbreak. Panic buying lasted barely one day. Photo: SCMP

Lesson three: transparency, openness, a willingness to take questions and engage with the media and ordinary citizens can be used to build trust. Trust and transparency need to go hand in hand with science. The science and professionalism of the mainland’s medical workers in the early stages of the outbreak seem to have been exemplary.

The political decision to minimise public disclosure in the name of harmony undid that good work and eroded the trust that China’s people have in their leaders to do the right thing.

It’s hard to believe that anything will be different next time

It’s very tough for leaders to get the right balance. But the mainland government’s increased assertion of control has served it – and the Chinese people – badly. Shutting out dissonant voices has brought a false harmony and stability, one that has been undone by disease and the ensuing panic.

One of the great strengths of the modern-day People’s Republic has been its leaders’ ability to adapt and learn from mistakes. But the priority of short-term stability over long-term trust and openness and the support of the people is something that is unlikely to change soon. It’s hard to believe that anything will be different next time.

In Hong Kong, at least, we still expect better from our government in terms of openness and transparency. We have superb medical and health professionals. Let the public see them more often, let them explain to us what they know and what they don’t know about this disease and its spread in our community.

We also need a more thorough commitment to public health, both on the part of the government and individuals. We all need to take responsibility for our health. It is hard to square the low rate of people who get flu shots with the high number who panic.

Team Clean, headed by then chief secretary Donald Tsang Yam-kuen, led to a visible improvement in urban hygiene in the wake of Sars. If the increased number of rats I’ve noticed wandering the streets in recent years is any indication, it’s time to set up Team Clean II. Sure, this is partly symbolic, but symbolism matters.

Covid-19 is the start of a new era. From what we know, it appears to be a highly transmissible flu-like disease that kills more people than ordinary flus but is nowhere near as bad as Sars, let alone Mers or Ebola. In Hong Kong, only about one in every 100,000 people has contracted the virus, yet all of us have felt its effects.

People are dying in larger numbers than during Sars, and Covid-19 still doesn’t seem to have peaked. Let’s learn the lessons of a hyper-global disease world: first, we will have to learn to live with new and scary diseases. Resilient systems – on the social, political and corporate front – will be needed to survive.

Second, science can’t be divorced from society – trust matters as much as medical science. Transparency and openness build trust.

It’s wrong to say that we have nothing to fear but fear itself when people are dying. But let’s not be consumed by panic. Let’s marry good science with open societies to build strong community bonds. It’s not too late.

Mark L. Clifford is executive director of the Asia Business Council