How terrorist and extremist groups are exploiting coronavirus cracks in society

As the world grapples with the Covid-19 pandemic, terrorist groups across the ideological spectrum are using it to validate their ideologies to lure more recruits and plot new attacks.

While transnational militants such as al-Qaeda and Islamic State (Isis) frame the pandemic as divine retribution, right-wing extremists in the West blame migrant communities, particularly the Jews and Chinese, for bringing contagion, and have called for strong borders, protectionism and anti-immigration policies.

The coronavirus pandemic will create a new set of grievances while exacerbating existing ones, resulting in deprivation and disenfranchisement that could lead to new forms of political violence.

In 19th century Britain, a group of textile workers known as Luddites violently protested against technology for displacing their jobs. In the wake of Covid-19, some radical fringe groups in Europe have burned 5G telephone towers, erroneously believing radiation from these poles cause the disease. Some neo-Luddite groups may find a common cause if they lose their jobs to greater technological penetration in a post-Covid-19 world.

Some of this frustration will find space in existing radical ideologies and organisational platforms, while other forms of violence may see the emergence of new radical groups and ideologies.

Mainly, those about to lose their jobs to automation, artificial intelligence and telecommuting might jump on the violent anti-establishment bandwagon. Learning from remote work experience during Covid-19, many corporate firms and companies will replace physical working with smart working to reduce costs.

Furthermore, the challenges created by Covid-19 will force governments to rethink priorities and redirect financial resources, military capabilities and policy focus to non-traditional threats such as food, health and human security.

Counterterrorism will be pushed down the priority list for Western governments, creating more space for terrorist groups. Already, in line with the peace deal concluded with the Taliban in late February, the United States is withdrawing troops from Afghanistan to bring the total down to 8,600 in 135 days.

Likewise, the US is reducing its military footprint in Iraq to two military bases protected by newly installed missile defence systems, following tit-for-tat rocket attacks by Iran-supported Shia militias in the aftermath of general Qassem Soleimani’s killing.

Similarly, Britain, France and Spain have withdrawn their troops from the anti-Isis coalition in Iraq, while Germany and the Netherlands have pulled out their training troops in Iraq.

In the wake of Covid-19, racial crimes and hate attacks against migrant communities and minorities have risen in the West. The coronavirus has provided right-wing extremists and white supremacists with a much-needed opening to vociferously demand stronger borders, greater protectionism and stringent anti-immigration laws.

Some of the more extreme fringe groups within the right-wing spectrum have advocated “accelerationism”, expediting the chaos created by Covid-19 through individual acts of mass violence, resulting in a race war which will pave the way for the creation of a pure white society.

The manifestos of Christchurch mosque attacker Brenton Tarrant and the California synagogue attack perpetrator John Earnest offer important insights into white supremacists’ accelerationist ideology.

Recently, 36-year-old neo-Nazi militant Timothy Wilson tried to bomb a Kansas City hospital treating Covid-19 patients. He was killed in an FBI shoot-out before he could execute his plan.

Meanwhile, both al-Qaeda and Isis have framed Covid-19 as divine retribution against “infidels” and “crusaders” for waging a war against Islam.

Isis has taken a totalitarian view of the pandemic, asking its supporters to step up their attacks to increase the suffering and pain of its adversaries. On April 28, Isis supporter Youssef T crushed two police motorcyclists to death in Paris with his BMW car. Before this, a Sudanese refugee stabbed two people to death and wounded five others in Romans-sur-Isère, a town near Lyon.

In comparison, al-Qaeda has enlisted Covid-19 in its public relations campaign. The militant group’s six-page statement invites Western citizens to convert to Islam by studying the religion during the quarantine.

The Taliban’s reaction to Covid-19 in Afghanistan is not so different from others. It restored security guarantees for the International Committee of the Red Cross, and invited other international humanitarian organisations to resume work in Taliban-controlled areas in Afghanistan.

The insurgent group, which has also distributed pamphlets to create awareness of social distancing and good hygiene against Covid-19, is pitching itself as a responsible political stakeholder in post-settlement Afghanistan.

Around the world, pandemic responses have been state-centric, rather than globally coordinated. In a post-Covid-19 world, state centrism is likely to continue, potentially weakening counterterrorism coalitions, and allowing insurgent and militant groups in conflict-hit areas of Asia and Africa to grow.

Notably, in ungoverned or poorly governed areas in weak states, insurgent groups such as the Afghan Taliban can gain political legitimacy.

Terrorism is likely to morph into new shapes and forms. Terrorist groups have positioned themselves to exploit the opportunities of a post-Covid-19 world.

For instance, the migration of entertainment, shopping and other professional sectors to online platforms allows terrorist groups to exploit more activities, through online theft and hacking financial security mechanisms.

Likewise, as more people, particularly in colleges and universities, take to the internet to continue their education, terrorist groups are stepping up their online propaganda to attract young minds to their extremist narratives.

In a post-Covid-19 world, devising more localised and non-militarised counterterrorism and counter-extremism responses would be needed to deny any potential advantages to terrorist groups.

Abdul Basit is a research fellow at the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies (RSIS), Singapore