Source:
https://scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3085447/coronavirus-offers-hong-kong-opportunity-turn-its-back-protest
Comment/ Opinion

Coronavirus offers Hong Kong an opportunity to turn its back on protest violence and heal its political rift

  • Resolving continuing clashes between protesters and police will require accepting the reality that ‘two systems’ is constitutionally subsidiary to ‘one country’
  • Beijing’s move to enact national security legislation in Hong Kong shows it will not allow the city to become a political chess piece in its strategic competition with the US
The People’s Liberation Army central barracks building (right) is seen in Hong Kong skyline on May 22. Beijing has moved to enact long-stalled national security legislation in the special administrative region. Photo: AP Photo

Every crisis brings disaster as well as opportunity. If there can be cooperation and compromise, this pandemic is a good time to accept past problems and seek a better future. But, using Hong Kong as an example, why is it so difficult to achieve political cooperation, compromise or conciliation?

Hong Kong’s future as an international financial centre hinges on political stability. Beirut’s descent into violence destroyed its position as a financial hub and cultural centre for the Middle East. Even Chris Patten, the last British governor of Hong Kong, agrees that violence does not lead to good outcomes.

Despite Hong Kong’s exemplary handling of the coronavirus outbreak, renewed protests mar the fragile peace. When even students are involved, the political poison is too deep to be handled by just police action. Exhortations for cooperation fall on deaf ears when both sides condemn the other as enemies.

The obvious way out of this is a healing process. How would a peace professional tackle this reconciliation?

Norwegian sociologist Johan Galtung, founder of the Peace Research Institute Oslo, is the doyen of peace and conflict studies. Resolving conflict by peaceful means recognises two parties – victim and perpetrator. It has four possible outcomes: A wins, B loses; B wins, A loses; postponement because neither are ready; and confused compromise in which neither are happy. This “cross” has two parties on the horizontal axis and peace or conflict on the vertical. To find a win-win peace solution, Galtung suggests a conciliator or mechanism must persuade both sides to expect peace is the only viable way forward.

Hong Kong was admired for its huge, peaceful protests. Until last year, most outsiders thought these non-violent protests were a sign of civility and maturity. But once violence began, polarisation rapidly escalated with both protesters and police feeling victimised, accusing each other of excessive violence. Even the courts cannot be neutral because the issue is not just one of law and evidence, but a political and constitutional divide requiring a political solution.

The real issue is under “one country, two systems”, a substantial number of Hong Kong residents believe two systems override one country, while the reality is two systems are constitutionally subsidiary to one country. It would be simple if Hong Kong was just a domestic city, but as an international financial centre, the global dimension is inextricably entangled.

In Galtung’s terminology, the Hong Kong domestic cross nests within China’s global cross, involving its relationship with the United States. Just as Hong Kong is the smaller player within the Chinese state, the United States is stronger in the global game. Both China and the US call themselves victims, but the US can inflict punitive tariffs and sanctions on China because of its economic, financial and military power. Just as the Hong Kong cross cannot have a neutral conciliator, because China is the sovereign power, the United States often refuses to recognise neutral conciliators such as the WTO trade dispute settlement mechanism.

It is now clear that, with the resolution tabled at the ongoing National People’s Congress meetings in Beijing to enable the passage of a new national security law in Hong Kong, Beijing has decided not to allow political instability in Hong Kong to affect national security.

Rally in Hong Kong to thank US for supporting the Human Rights and Democracy Act

02:18

Rally in Hong Kong to thank US for supporting the Human Rights and Democracy Act

As Kishore Mahbubani identifies in his book on the US-China rivalry, both sides overestimate their strengths while underestimating the other’s. If the relationship was purely economic, the issue could be rationally resolved. But China will not accept the United States wanting to change China.

Furthermore, Beijing will not want to see Hong Kong caught in the crossfire of a US-China contest. If Hong Kong became a political chess piece, it would seriously threaten Hong Kong’s international financial centre status and jobs. Indeed, if the US proposes to delist Chinese companies listed in the US, Hong Kong’s stock market would get a boost from returning Chinese listings.

Convergence of views requires what Galtung calls “reconstruction, resolution and reconciliation”. Reconstruction could be quick in Hong Kong because it is a rich city, but rebuilding relationships that have been broken will be difficult. The underlying issues that create polarisation, such as housing and income inequality, must be identified and resolved. Finally, reconciliation, between Hong Kong and the mainland as well as between the US and China, would require frank dialogue and focus-group discussions to identify common ground.

As the blame game over the pandemic shows, verbal attacks accomplish nothing. If we are responsible stakeholders in global peace and survival, we must find the right framework for healing and reconciliation. The pandemic shows individual freedoms cannot come at the expense of society. Just as the pandemic is destroying the old order, the good news is that at the scientific, medical and people levels, there is cooperation and goodwill.

Every journey towards peace and community begins with a first step. No journey is too difficult, nor any crosses too hard to bear together. A violent road has no good endings. The pandemic has taught us to accept humility because arrogance has brought down the old order. That is the real burden of history – crisis and opportunity are not binary but one.

Andrew Sheng writes on global issues from an Asian perspective. The views expressed are solely those of the author

Help us understand what you are interested in so that we can improve SCMP and provide a better experience for you. We would like to invite you to take this five-minute survey on how you engage with SCMP and the news.