South Korea is just one casualty of the US-China ‘cold war’

The struggle by the United States to prevent China from catching up to and overtaking it as the world’s dominant nation is putting countries in a difficult position. Many rely on China for trade, but also consider the US a security ally. Amid intensifying pressure, they are being forced to choose sides on particular issues and not being given an option. South Korea typifies the predicament, ironic given that it came into being as a result of great power rivalry and the Cold War.

Several years of progress in negotiations by President Moon Jae-in to improve relations with North Korea, heightened by parallel moves by American leader Donald Trump to get Pyongyang to scrap its nuclear programme, appear to have been in vain. The North has decided to cut off all communications with the South in retaliation for Seoul’s supporting North Korean defectors. But the resolution is also likely linked to talks with Seoul’s ally, the US, having ground to a halt over Washington’s refusal to drop sanctions in return for a partial weapons reduction. On the second anniversary of a landmark summit between leaders Trump and Kim Jong-un in Singapore, North Korea’s foreign minister said there would be no more meetings unless there were substantial concessions.

Trump’s G7 invitation puts China-South Korea ties to the test

Being caught in the middle of rivalry between the US and North Korea is a decades-old problem for South Korea and now it also has to contend with Sino-American animosity. The presence of tens of thousands of US troops on its soil since the 1950-53 Korean war as a bulwark against North Korean aggression is also a source of tension with China. Washington’s pressure for Seoul to host an anti-ballistic missile defence system angered Beijing due to its surveillance capabilities and although that issue has largely been resolved, there are now demands from the Trump administration to deny Huawei and other Chinese technology firms integrated circuits. With China being by far South Korea’s biggest trading partner, acceding to such a demand is difficult.

Seoul only too well remembers Beijing’s unofficial retaliation for giving the go-ahead for the anti-missile system, which led to a 16-month banning of Chinese tourists and boycotts of South Korean companies and products. Ties have warmed since Moon met President Xi Jinping in November 2017 and agreed to “normalise exchanges” after giving military and security assurances. But mounting hostility between China and the US is increasing pressure from the Trump administration that amounts to choosing sides

The dilemma extends around the world, from Australia and New Zealand to Germany and Britain to Japan and the Philippines to Panama and Brazil. As the US and China increase the heat of their contest and make greater demands, the global risks, divisions and tensions will also heighten.