Hong Kong’s third runway and Lantau Tomorrow Vision are obsolete as coronavirus changes the world

The world has undergone drastic changes in the past year with unprecedented “black swan” events occurring. The US-China trade war, Hong Kong’s protests against the extradition bill, the Covid-19 pandemic, the death of George Floyd which led to the Black Lives Matter demonstrations – all have disrupted the world order.

Fashion retail chain Zara closed down 1,200 of its outlets overnight. The global aviation industry has been brought to a standstill, and global commerce has contracted significantly. In Hong Kong, Ocean Park and Cathay Pacific received a government bailout to help them survive the current challenges.

More than 9 million people have been diagnosed with Covid-19, and the death toll has reached almost half a million and continues to surge. One after another, countries are being hit hard by the pandemic.

It’s clear that Covid-19 is far from under control. The suspected second wave has already surfaced in China, the United States and Europe.

Experts estimate that, with the arrival of autumn and winter in the northern hemisphere, we will see further outbreaks. It could take years until a vaccine is shown to be effective with all serious side-effects eliminated.

What is worth highlighting is that the pandemic has completely changed our way of living, overturning traditional industries and existing systems. Then there is the negative impact of the new cold war caused by the prolonged stand-off between China and the United States.

Given the challenges and unforeseeable factors, any government should put serious thought into existing development plans which seem obsolete now. This is especially the case for Hong Kong, which has gone through the protests against the extradition law and now faces emerging social unrest over the national security law.

However, it seems the government hasn’t learned any lessons and insists on putting forward plans which are not in the best interests of the Hong Kong people. Injecting capital into Ocean Park, the construction of a third runway at Hong Kong International Airport and the multibillion-dollar Lantau Tomorrow Vision are now impractical and unrealistic, given the economic recession.

Take the HK$141.5 billion (US$18.3 billion) third runway as an example. Not only will there almost certainly be budget overruns, the construction is unnecessary given that the two existing runways are still not used to the fullest extent. Also, it is uncertain whether the global aviation industry can quickly be restored to pre-pandemic levels. The third runway will surely turn into another white elephant project.

Lantau metropolis will cost HK$624 billion. What else could that buy?

The government should immediately terminate all works. Instead of wasting public funds, the administration should find ways to revitalise the tourism and aviation industries to maintain Hong Kong’s status as an international aviation hub.

Furthermore, the airport is not well-equipped for a third runway. Software such as the Air Traffic Management System is outdated. A lack of talent is one reason Hong Kong’s air traffic management is falling behind neighbouring regions.

The government should use the current global lull in aviation to enhance the current air traffic control equipment and facilities. A strong team with talent from all over the world should be built to maintain Hong Kong’s competitiveness in aviation.

For the same reason, the Lantau Tomorrow Vision project should be halted. With the implementation of the national security law, we may see thousands of Hongkongers head to other countries. Even with new immigrants from the mainland, it is unlikely that a population projection exceeding 9 million will be correct.

The demand for land and housing will fall. The Lantau development plan will end up being futile and a waste of resources. Let’s not forget that Hong Kong will eventually integrate into the Greater Bay Area, and housing will no longer be a pressing issue with the abundant land supply in the Pearl River Delta area.

The world has changed, and the government should be flexible with its development plans and policy proposals. Those that are vital to Hong Kong’s survival should come first.

Albert Cheng King-hon is a political commentator