Two years on, why most Covid-19 conventional wisdom is wrong

As we enter the pandemic’s third year, you should know that most Covid-19 conventional wisdom is wrong and most coronavirus policies are dumb. The advent of vaccines has transformed Covid-19 from a medical disaster into a sociological disaster – a jumble of fear, confusion and bad politics.

Here is all you need to know about Covid-19: first, globally available vaccines provide temporary antibody protection against infection; second, vaccines confer longer-lasting T cell protection against serious illness and death; and third, Covid-19 is endemic.

That is not hard to grasp, but the world cannot seem to process it. Instead, we get endless catastrophising. Here’s why the following Covid-19 conventional wisdom is wrong.

New variants are worrying

Viruses mutate. Per evolutionary pressures, new variants like Omicron tend to be more contagious and less severe. For the vaccinated, variants are rarely dangerous. Given the way T cells work, T cell immunity will be effective against most new variants.

In the unlikely event that a lethal new variant poses a challenge to T cell immunity, improved vaccines will come to the rescue.

The best way to optimise your T cells to protect against dangerous new variants is to get infected by a weaker variant, such as Omicron. Periodic reinfection is nature’s booster.

More testing is needed

Why? It is not like mass testing has halted Covid-19’s global spread. Covid-19 is endemic in most places, and highly contagious variants like Omicron ensure that it will eventually become endemic everywhere. Tracking a disease that is everywhere is pointless.

Rising case numbers are worrying

Curtailing the spread is not possible with vaccines that produce waning antibodies. It does not need to happen – vaccinated T cells provide adequate protection. And it is too late as Covid-19 is already endemic.

Fatalities are rising

The vast majority of those who are dying are unvaccinated. That has been true of all waves since the vaccines were introduced, and it will be true of all future waves.

But yes, some vaccinated people will die, while some people cannot be vaccinated and some children will get sick.

Isolate if you test positive

Isolating is not going to stop the spread of an endemic virus.

Masks are necessary

Masks helped slow the spread in the pandemic’s early days. But in a world of endemic Covid-19 and vaccines, masking lacks a clear rationale. It has devolved into an orgy of virtue signalling, massively degrading quality of life.

Social distancing is necessary

No, for the same reasons as above.

Lockdowns are necessary

Lockdowns failed, and cost tens of trillions of dollars.

Remote learning is a good alternative

Let’s shutter the one institution populated by the one cohort that appears largely impervious to Covid-19. Let’s take a generation that is already addicted to screens and put them on Zoom eight hours a day. Covid-19-inspired school closures are evil.

Introduce vaccine passports

I’m not sure what this achieves as vaccinated people spread Covid-19 too.

Zero Covid is a good policy

As highly contagious variants pop up, quarantines will be breached and zero Covid policies will fail. Also, why go to so much trouble and expense to prevent vaccinated people from getting mild or asymptomatic cases?

There is really only one thing we should be doing about Covid-19: encouraging vaccination. And Covid-19 policy should unapologetically favour the vaccinated majority, who should never be made to suffer for the foolishness of the unvaccinated minority.

That alone fully justifies ending all social distancing, masking, lockdowns, school closures and quarantines.

Hong Kong’s failure to vaccinate its elderly is a time bomb. Many seniors will die if even a mild variant overwhelms the city’s quarantine, which will eventually will happen. Those most at risk from Covid-19 will have little protection.

When will the madness end? There are two rays of hope. If Omicron turns out to be as mild as it initially appears, akin to the common cold, that will undermine the hysteria.

Also, Pfizer’s Paxlovid. Once people get easy access to a pill that drastically reduces hospitalisation across all variants, Covid-19 will become a lot less scary – just another a nasty bug that goes away with some medicine.

Joshua M. Zimmerman is a former corporate lawyer who has advised on debt and equity financings throughout Asia