Source:
https://scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3184620/climate-change-nuclear-catastrophe-out-control-ai-how-us-china-tech
Comment/ Opinion

Climate change, nuclear catastrophe, out-of-control AI: how US-China tech rivalry puts humanity at risk

  • The accelerating tech rivalry between the US and China is compounding the risks scientific advances could pose to humankind
  • The two economies ought to cooperate on the world’s most pressing problems instead of engaging in competition that could leave us vulnerable to climate change, nuclear disaster, disease and malevolent AI
Illustration: Craig Stephens

Science is a double-edged sword that sometimes has been misused to inflict harm. Growing US-China hi-tech rivalry is compounding the risks and ills technology can inflict upon humanity.

In June, a new team of Chinese astronauts arrived at China’s space station, Tiangong, for the final phase of its construction. Meanwhile, the US-led International Space Station is expected to cease operations by the end of 2030, and Nasa has yet to announce a replacement plan.

A recent study published by the Belfer Centre for Science and International Affairs at the Harvard Kennedy School forecasts that China will overtake the United States in core 21st-century technologies within the next decade. Nicolas Chaillan, a former chief software officer at the Pentagon, has claimed that China has already won the race to dominate cyberspace.

More than half a century ago, the “Sputnik moment” stirred a similar US crisis of confidence and fear of losing ground. The US buckled down and subsequently eclipsed the Soviet Union. When the Soviet Union collapsed, the former adversaries came together to collaborate, including on joint missions to the International Space Station. Russia has said it will end cooperation on the space station in reaction to its being sanctioned for its invasion of Ukraine, though, and the US and Russia are once again locked in hostility.

However, the ongoing US-China rivalry is a more extensive, consequential affair. In addition to launching competing lunar and Mars missions, US and Chinese telescopes are peering deep into space in search of extraterrestrial intelligence.

But the US-China space race is also shifting into an arms race, with each accusing the other of weaponising space. The formation of the US Space Force in 2019 under the Trump administration is a game-changing development with far-reaching military and national security ramifications.

Chinese space contractor plans for ‘arduous’ year as China-US space race intensifies

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Chinese space contractor plans for ‘arduous’ year as China-US space race intensifies

Back on Earth, an intense technological battle is brewing. Industry 4.0 is transforming China into a vast network of smart cities. Artificial intelligence, 5G and the internet of things are revamping societal governance and the Chinese way of life.

For some, a progressively digitalised China is the future. For others, a futuristic China is a dystopian nightmare. The bans on Chinese tech giant Huawei, among others, are portrayed as being aimed at preventing the free world from turning into a mass surveillance state.

By all accounts, the internet is now bifurcated into two parallel digital universes: the US-led free and open virtual reality and China’s cyberspace with Chinese characteristics.

Much is at stake in the US-China hi-tech rivalry. The battle for supremacy in cyberspace and outer space is likely to determine the next pre-eminent geoeconomic and military superpower. Aside from shaking up the global balance of power, the intense tug of war is also undermining the scientific community’s ability to confront the crises afflicting humankind.

Why China is tightening control over cybersecurity

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Why China is tightening control over cybersecurity

To fight the Covid-19 pandemic, scientists invented state-of-the-art mRNA vaccines with unprecedented speed. However, disagreements over the origin of Covid-19 cast a pall over this historical accomplishment and hampered the global response to the pandemic.

To reduce carbon emissions and stem global warming, Chinese scientists have engineered some of the world’s most advanced green technologies. Yet, the US has banned the import of China-made solar panels, citing the Chinese state’s human rights abuses in Xinjiang.

Enmity is blinding Washington and Beijing to the need to work together to save the planet. Instead, they are locked in a race to develop even more lethal weapons such as autonomous killer drones and hypersonic missiles to inflict harm and wage war.

The increasingly bitter US-China rivalry is in danger of descending into a mutually self-destructive confrontation that could drag the rest of humankind down the path of total destruction, whether from climate change or nuclear catastrophe.

A formation of unmanned combat armaments are displayed during a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing on October 1, 2019. Photo: Xinhua
A formation of unmanned combat armaments are displayed during a military parade marking the 70th anniversary of the founding of the People’s Republic of China in Beijing on October 1, 2019. Photo: Xinhua

There is another force that could emerge to threaten humanity. In June, Google engineer Blake Lemoine claimed the company’s chatbot LaMDA had become sentient. Most experts have dismissed Lemoine’s assertion that LaMDA has acquired human-like consciousness.

Still, AI’s capability for self-learning is advancing steadily, and the trajectory of this progress remains largely unknown. Could AI evolve into an entity that evades human control?

AI is now outperforming humans in executing some specific tasks. Artificial general intelligence is expected to learn and do any intellectual task that a human can do. Some foresee a future where artificial superintelligence could possess capacities surpassing that of human intelligence.

In 2017, the late physicist Stephen Hawking warned: “The rise of powerful AI will either be the best or the worst thing ever to happen to humanity.” The global community should be having an open conversation on how to prudently and ethically control AI.

Yet, with the ongoing US-China tech war and deepening mistrust, it is difficult to imagine the two sides are ready for such a conversation. In all likelihood, both countries will continue to secretly develop even greater, more powerful supercomputers in a bid to outsmart each other’s AI.

Regrettably, the US-China hi-tech rivalry is likely to leave humankind exposed and vulnerable to the potential perils AI could unleash. The world has a choice: we can work together to use science to avert the crises confronting humanity, or we can choose to weaponise technology to inflict harm and push ourselves down the path of self-destruction.

There is a third scenario in which a time comes when this choice is no longer ours to make. An AI, sentient or otherwise, could emerge to upend the long-standing assumption that homo sapiens are the masters of our own destiny.

Peter T.C. Chang is deputy director of the Institute of China Studies, University of Malaya, Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia