Nancy Pelosi has to stay clear of Taiwan for the sake of us all

A report that US House of Representatives speaker Nancy Pelosi plans to lead a delegation to Taiwan next month remains neither confirmed nor denied. Meanwhile, President Joe Biden, revealing he is likely to have a video call with President Xi Jinping within 10 days, said his military advisers believed a visit by Pelosi would not be a good idea “right now” and he did not know “the status” of the visit.

It is not a good idea full stop, not now if the two leaders are to defuse tension over Taiwan and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, or later. Biden reaffirmed American commitment to the one-China principle in a video call with Xi just four months ago. US Secretary of State Antony Blinken and National Security Adviser Jake Sullivan have conveyed the same reassurance that Washington seeks no change to the status quo over the Taiwan Strait.

The principle is the political foundation of China-US relations. Visits by official US delegations to Taipei do nothing to uphold it and only undermine confidence in it. A visit by Pelosi would be the highest-level official delegation from Washington in 25 years. She is not only the most important member of the House but also, under the Constitution, second in line of succession to the presidency behind the vice-president. The report, understandably, has alarmed Beijing, which has warned it will respond to such a visit with “resolute and forceful measures” for which the US would bear responsibility.

‘We will do what we say’: Beijing warns against Taiwan visit by Pelosi

The United States can argue that increased military tension over the Taiwan Strait justifies increased military backing for Taiwan to support the status quo. But a change to this state of affairs involves both sides. A visit by Pelosi in no way would reduce military tension over the strait. But it would embolden the separatist, independence camp in Taiwan and could eventually lead to a situation where the status quo would be changed or challenged.

In that case China would be gravely provoked. The US cannot say one thing and then do another. Not only is it wrong but also such a provocation could bring disastrous consequences to this part of the world. If Pelosi is really going to make the trip, the US needs to explain the strategic purpose to China and to the region, because every Asian country would be dragged into the consequences – instead of sending very mixed signals. Beijing by contrast is sending a very clear signal. If the Taiwan Strait is adding complexity or confusion and tension to this part of the world, the US is really the main culprit.

Biden’s administration cannot hide behind the line that Pelosi and the US Congress have nothing to do with the government. Given both Biden and Pelosi are Democrats, from the same party that controls both the White House and the House of Representatives, that is an unconvincing excuse.