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https://scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/3113585/boeing-737-max-planes-return-china-riddled-uncertainty
Economy/ China Economy

Boeing 737 MAX: plane’s return to China riddled with uncertainty as tensions with US rage on

  • Brazil’s Gol Airlines became the first carrier to return Boeing’s 737 MAX to service on Wednesday after two deadly crashes in 2018 and 2019
  • But the plane’s future in China, where it is still grounded, is unclear and its fate could be tied to broader US-China frictions, analysts say
China Southern Airlines Boeing 737 MAX aircraft parked in a line at Urumqi airport, in China's western Xinjiiang region. Photo: AFP

As Boeing’s troubled 737 MAX took off for its first commercial flight in 20 months this week, the company is still facing challenges getting the passenger jet into the air in the critical Chinese aviation market, where its business has become entangled in tension between Beijing and Washington.

Brazil’s Gol Airlines became the first carrier to return the plane to service on Wednesday, following two crashes in 2018 and 2019 that killed 346 people and raised questions about its safety.

The US Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) approved the MAX to fly again last month, while Europe is set to lift its flight ban in January.

But the plane’s future in China, which was the first country to ground the model in March 2019, is still unclear – in what could have a significant impact on its business.

US lifts Boeing 737 MAX flight ban after finishing safety probe of Indonesia and Ethiopia crashes

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US lifts Boeing 737 MAX flight ban after finishing safety probe of Indonesia and Ethiopia crashes

The Civil Aviation Administration of China (CAAC) said last month it had not set a timetable for the plane’s return and the model must meet safety requirements to take off again.

“As long as these conditions are met, we’re happy to see the MAX return to service in China,” Feng Zhenglin, the agency’s director, told reporters last month.

“But if these conditions cannot be met, we still have to carry out strict airworthiness certification to ensure safety.”

The statement appeared to indicate Beijing is in no hurry to let the MAX return, even though there are currently 96 of the planes grounded in China.

Richard Aboulafia, vice-president of analysis at aviation and defence consultancy Teal Group, said it would be a “serious blow” for Boeing if the MAX was not allowed to return to service in China.

“China represents around 30 per cent of demand for aircraft in this class, moving forward,” he said. “But it isn’t at all clear that Airbus could supply all of China’s needs, and domestic Chinese programmes are many years away from being capable.”

China’s own narrow body passenger jet, the Comac C919, is being developed to compete with the Boeing 737 and Airbus A320.

In the past, global aviation regulators would usually follow the guidance of the FAA, credited for decades with pioneering aviation safety. But after the US agency was faulted for lax oversight of the MAX model, there are questions about whether international regulators should continue to follow its lead.

“China is no different to most safety regulators around the world in deciding, against recent custom, to reach their own views on the safety of the MAX,” said Andrew Charlton, managing director of Aviation Advocacy.

We cannot deny that the MAX is embroiled in the political schism between the two countries Shukor Yusof

“That is a pity, because the system we had until this was largely built on trust, that we accept FAA certification for US aircraft, European certification for Airbus and so on. It is to be hoped, for efficiency and international comity reasons, that we can get back to that point.”

Richard Wynne, managing director for China marketing with Boeing Commercial Airplanes, told the state-backed Global Times last month the company “has been actively cooperating with Chinese regulators in terms of technical support, but the time for the plane’s return to flight in China’s airspace will be determined by Chinese regulators”.

The question for the CAAC is if it can remain independent of political influence and make decisions on aviation safety alone, especially given China’s investment in the C919 and goals to distribute the plane with its own certification, analysts said.

“We cannot deny that the MAX is embroiled in the political schism between the two countries,” said Shukor Yusof, founder of aviation consultant Endau Analytics. “Beijing will use whatever leverage it has to ensure it stays in the game, and be victorious in the end.”

Fear of flying: troubled start for Boeing’s new 737 MAX series jets

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Fear of flying: troubled start for Boeing’s new 737 MAX series jets

The Chinese government sanctioned Boeing Defence in October for its involvement in selling arms to Taiwan, showing Beijing’s unhappiness with the company amid increasing friction with Washington.

The CAAC has a reputation for being “demanding and very thorough” as an aviation regulator, according to Kevin Michaels, managing director of AeroDynamic Advisory, an aerospace and aviation consultancy.

Although the initial grounding of the MAX in China was unlikely to be linked to politics, there may be new demand for recertification that is tied into the broader trade war, said Michaels, who has advised on China’s aviation projects in the past.

“The US and China are going to be rivals, that’s the world we are living in,” he added.

China remains an important market for Boeing. The Chicago-based aerospace giant last month raised its rolling forecast for demand in the country to 8,600 new planes through 2039, up from its previous estimate of 8,090.