The real problem is that average meat consumption in China is still higher than either the old or the new guidelines recommend. According to the UN’s Food and Agriculture Organisation (FAO), daily consumption of meat and dairy products in China still averages more than 300 grams per day – and that value is expected to keep increasing over the next few decades. The country’s meat consumption alone comes to about 62kg per capita annually, while the dietary guidelines would limit it to just over 27kg.

If such reductions were to actually occur, it could be a major win for the environment. Agriculture is one of the primary contributors to global greenhouse gas emissions, mostly in the form of methane and nitrous oxide – when forestry and other land use changes are factored in, the agriculture sector may account for as much as a quarter of global greenhouse gas emissions. In fact, a recent study suggested that farm emissions need to fall by a billion tonnes per year by the year 2030 if we’re to meet our global climate goals under the Paris Agreement.

The meat industry – and particularly beef production – is one of the biggest culprits. In addition to the huge amounts of land, water and food required to raise livestock, cattle are infamous for belching large quantities of methane into the atmosphere. And cattle raising, in particular, is known as a major contributor to deforestation, which also drives up global carbon emissions.

Numerous studies have emphasised the environmental benefits that would come from a global reduction in meat consumption – particularly beef. Last month, for instance, the World Resources Institute released a report outlining the changes in land use and greenhouse gas emissions that would accompany a number of hypothetical global diet shifts, including reductions in the consumption of beef and animal products as a whole. And earlier this year, researchers from the University of Oxford published a paper suggesting that a more plant-based diet worldwide could cut food-related greenhouse gas emissions by anywhere from 29 to 70 per cent.

The lead author of that paper, Marco Springmann of the University of Oxford, noted that such changes in China, alone, could have major health and environmental impacts. According to his research, reducing China’s average red meat consumption by about 100 grams per day in the year 2050 could help avert 2.2 million deaths and cut food-related greenhouse gas emissions by more than a billion tonnes.

“Any changes in dietary recommendations that move into that direction would represent a step in the right direction,” he says.

Additionally, an upcoming report from environmental organisation WildAid estimates that adherence to the dietary guidelines could cut greenhouse gas emissions by an amount equal to 1.5 per cent of total global emissions.

Whether the new guidelines can actually bring about such changes, though, is another question. Since the guidelines haven’t changed dramatically from their 2007 version – and average meat consumption has remained high (and growing) in China – it appears that more efforts may be necessary to draw consumer attention to the recommendations.

Springmann, for instance, suggested that a good step forward would be “to explicitly include the sustainability and environmental impacts of food consumption”, an approach that he said has been used in places such as Brazil, Germany, Sweden and even the US. And, in fact, this is a strategy that WildAid is now working on in collaboration with the Chinese Nutrition Society, which prepared the new guidelines.

“WildAid was not involved in the creation of the guidelines, but we are involved in the promotion of them,” says Matt Grager, WildAid’s climate programme officer. He says WildAid and the Chinese Nutrition Society have been working together to produce billboards featuring celebrities and other public figures that advertise the key messages from the new guidelines. These materials are being distributed throughout the country.

One point that’s important to remember, however, is that the meat consumption reported in China represents an average across the country. But, in fact, “there’s a big divide between consumption patterns in urban versus rural areas”, says Richard Waite , an associate in the World Resources Institute’s food programme and one of the authors on the recent WRI report.

“According to the China Health and Nutrition Survey, in 2011, per capita consumption of meat and dairy was nearly twice as high in urban areas as in rural areas,” he said. “So the new guidelines might still mean that some people. . .would actually consume more meat and dairy than they do now.”

This is not necessarily a bad thing, as malnutrition remains a problem in some areas, and the primary purpose of the dietary guidelines is to encourage citizens to eat a healthy and balanced diet. And universal adherence to the guidelines would even out in a way that would reduce the nation’s overall average meat consumption.

That said, Waite agreed that merely updating the guidelines may not be enough to spur action among consumers. “However, guidelines can be a valuable ingredient in broader efforts to shift consumption habits – by raising the profile of the issue, prompting food manufacturers to reformulate products, and prompting food service providers like cafeterias and restaurants to change what’s on their menus,” he said.

The focus on China is important, given the country’s large (and increasing) population and its current status as the world’s leading contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions. But the fact remains that average per capita meat consumption in other countries – notably, the US – remains even higher. So while efforts in China are a step forward – and environmentalists remain optimistic about the changes that may come from the new guidelines and education campaign – global change in the agriculture sector will require a worldwide effort.

The Washington Post