Risk of South China Sea conflict could rise after US destroyer sails near disputed islands under Chinese control, experts say

The risk of conflict in the South China Sea could increase following the latest “freedom of navigation” exercise by the US Navy in the disputed waters, experts warn.

On Friday, the guided-missile destroyer USS Decatur challenged “excessive maritime claims” near Triton and Woody islands in the Paracel Islands chain, US officials said. Vietnam and Taiwan also have claims in the Paracels.

The destroyer sailed near the 12-nautical-mile territorial limit but did not cross it before three Chinese vessels began to shadow it, according to the officials. The destroyer left and all interactions were safe, they said.

But China viewed the move as an intentional challenge made after Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte said his nation would “separate” from the US, a traditional ally.

The defence ministry condemned the move as “illegal and provocative”, saying only two of its warships, the Guangzhou and the Luoyang, warned the US vessel to leave the area.

“This has proved that the US side is the troublemaker in the stability of the South China Sea,” said ministry spokesman Wu Qian.

“China will work together with other nations in the area to firmly defend peace and stability in the South China Sea region.”

Foreign ministry spokeswoman Hua Chunying said the move “severely violated China’s sovereignty and security interests” and called it “an extremely irresponsible provocative act”.

The Pentagon said the Decatur “conducted its transit in a routine, lawful manner” and the manoeuvre was long planned.

Military and diplomatic observers warned that the risk of military conflict between the two powers could increase should the regional balance of power shift following any strategic realignment by Manila.

“What Duterte is doing is intensifying tensions between China and the US that have already been heightened … and opening another arena of confrontation between China and the US,” said Renato Cruz De Castro, a fellow at the East-West Centre in Washington and an expert on China and the Philippines.

The US might “light up other fires” if it lost its footing in the Philippines, he added.

Su Hao, an international relations professor at China Foreign Affairs University, said the sail-by close to Woody Island, or Yongxing in Chinese, was particularly serious given it was home to the prefecture-level government of Sansha. “This is particularly serious ... it is the core island China is controlling,” he said.

The PLA maintains a presence on Woody Island, reportedly including HQ-9 air defence missiles and J-11 fighter jets. Military personnel outnumber civilians on the island by three to one, the PLA Daily reported earlier this year. State media put the population of Sansha at 1,000 in 2013.

Ni Lexiong, a Shanghai-based military affairs commentator, said more nations in the region could follow the Philippines’ lead after realising the benefits a shift towards China brought.

“The US would want to show that even without the support from the Philippines, it has the will and the ability to continue its freedom of navigation operation,” Ni said.

The Chinese navy had grown more assertive, Ni said, pointing to the deployment of two ships to warn off the destroyer, but added both sides would want to avoid any accidental encounters.

Song Zhongping, a Beijing based military expert, said: “We won’t rule out frictions ... but we don’t want to see that and we would restrain ourselves.”

The latest move was the fourth challenge the US has made to maritime claims by China in the region in the past year.

In the last three US freedom-of-navigation operations in the South China Sea within the last year, US warships cruised within 12 nautical miles of islands claimed by Beijing. The actions drew angry responses from China, which has accused the United States of stirring up trouble there.

In January, a US destroyer went within 12 miles of Triton Island. China’s Defence Ministry said it had declared its “baseline” for the Paracel Islands in 1996.

Additional reporting by Reuters