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China/ Diplomacy

Could China be ready to overtake the US as the world’s leading scientific powerhouse?

  • With American universities on the slide, the country that is investing more in research is poised to reap the benefits, writes John Glynn
American universities fell back in the latest QS world rankings. Photo: AFP

From scanning the heavens for extraterrestrial life to developing innovative weaponry, the importance of scientific research cannot be overstated. Obviously, for scientific progress to occur, quality education is key.

The countries with the best universities and research facilities stand the best chance of making breakthrough discoveries. So, with this being said, is there one specific country that holds the key to scientific progress?

Well, if the latest QS World University Rankings are anything to go by, it’s not the United States.

According to the 16th edition of the list, the US higher education system has recorded its worst performance in 16 years and its rate of decline appears to be accelerating.

The rankings, produced by global higher education consultancy Quacquarelli Symonds, list the world’s top universities based on academic reputation, graduate employability, student-staff ratio, research performance and internationalisation.

More than 72 per cent of the US’s 157 ranked universities have deteriorated in rank. Furthermore, the US also recorded its lowest number of top-100 universities (29) since 2016 and four fewer than last year.

It is painfully clear that the global academic community’s confidence in the US higher education system is diminishing, and diminishing rapidly. What is behind the precipitous drop in trust?

This erosion of confidence has been compounded by a number of factors, including worsening international student ratios, relative to global peers, and evidence that America’s status as the leader in academic research is under threat from a very specific country. Predictably, the country is China.

Peking University is rising in stature. Photo: Xinhua
Peking University is rising in stature. Photo: Xinhua

According to the QS rankings, China’s two leading universities, Tsinghua and Peking, have reached their highest-ever position in the ranking. Moreover, Chinese research output now rivals that of the United States.

Both Tsinghua and Peking are research intensive universities. Their rise reflects China’s investment in education and scientific research. In the latest report, of China’s 42 ranked universities, 32 have improved their performance for QS’s citations per paper indicator.

China, already the world’s top exporting and trading country, is quickly becoming the market leader in scientific research.

Increased investment is key to future success. Photo: AFP
Increased investment is key to future success. Photo: AFP

For the past three years, the Nature Index has measured how frequently countries and institutions contribute to 82 of the most prestigious publications in the natural sciences.

The data reveals that the US is quickly losing ground. While the Chinese continue to publish an increasing number of papers in peer-reviewed journals, contributions to major scientific journals by American scientists continue to decline.

Clearly, if these two opposing trends continue, China’s scientific output will eclipse that of the US. According to the Nature Index, this eclipse will occur within the next six years.

This trend should not come as a surprise. After all, in 2007, the US National Academy of Sciences, National Academy of Engineering and Institute of Medicine issued an ominous joint report that warned of the US’s diminishing influence in science and technology.

The authors warned of China’s economic growth and the country’s commitment to scientific advancement. Was anybody listening?

Three years after the prophetic joint report, a similar, but more insistent, report followed. The conclusion was as blunt as it was accurate: “The United States appears to be on a course that will lead to a declining, not growing, standard of living for our children and grandchildren”.

The authors recommended close to two dozen specific investments in STEM (science, technology, engineering and mathematics) education and research funding that could help stimulate technological innovation and avoid this worrying scenario. Again, was anybody listening?

A make America Great Again cap may not be enough to keep the country at the top when it comes to science. Photo: Reuters
A make America Great Again cap may not be enough to keep the country at the top when it comes to science. Photo: Reuters

Yes, the Chinese. In 2014, a study published in the journal Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences outlined a number of major factors that appear to be fuelling China’s rise to scientific dominance.

First, with a population of close to 1.4 billion, more than four times that of the United States, China has an enormous capacity for labour growth. With more money available for scholarships than ever before, the number of Chinese scientists and engineers continues to grow.

Since 1999, China has made the expansion of quality education a primary goal.

Furthermore, along with the increase in educational facilities, there has also been an increase in Chinese students studying STEM.

According to the report, in 2010, 44 per cent of higher education students in China were majoring in science or engineering; in the United States, just 16 per cent.

The reason for such a disparity probably has something to do with earning potential. In China, it is common knowledge that many scientists earn more than doctors and politicians. In the US, however, the opposite is often the case.

Tsinghua University in Beijing is one of China’s leading research universities. Photo: Reuters
Tsinghua University in Beijing is one of China’s leading research universities. Photo: Reuters

Burt Reynolds once said: “To be successful in business, you have to be ruthless.”

The Chinese, clearly fans of Burt’s advice, have set about recruiting distinguished senior-level Chinese scientists to spearhead research projects.

A decade ago, the Chinese government launched The Recruitment Programme of Global Experts as part of the Thousand Talents Programme.

The innocent sounding initiative was actually designed to pry exceptional Chinese academics away from their positions at high-tier foreign research institutions.

A number of these highly respected academics were working in the United States.

By offering lucrative salaries and generous relocation allowances, not surprisingly, a large number of Chinese-American scientists left their respective departments and returned to China. Some of the returnees worked at prestigious institutes like MIT and Caltech.

The final point, which relates to China’s increasing investments in science, cannot be stated enough. Thirty years ago, China put 0.7 per of its gross domestic product into research and development. By 2016 officials tripled that investment to 2.1 per cent. By 2025, the figure will hover somewhere about 3 per cent.

Edmond Mbiaka once wrote: “Consistency with the right strategic plan is the ultimate key to success.”

China clearly understands this piece of wisdom. Can the same be said for the United States?

Dr John Glynn is a professor of psychology at The University of Bahrain, Manama. His writing has been published by the likes of Quillette, The Washington Post, The Federalist, Skeptic and The Spectator