Will China try to solve the US-Iran crisis – or view it as an opportunity?

Hours before Iran's missile attacks on Wednesday in revenge for the US’ killing of military commander Qassem Soleimani, a top Beijing envoy visited Tehran.

As tensions with Washington reached what UN secretary general Antonio Guterres called “the highest level this century”, veteran diplomat Zhai Jun, China’s special representative in the Middle East, attended a security forum and met Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Chinese foreign ministry said.

According to the Beijing-friendly Phoenix TV in Hong Kong, Zhai slammed “external forces” for acting as saboteurs, in a barely veiled jab at US President Donald Trump, who had ordered the assassination of Soleimani last week, pushing the volatile region to the edge of the abyss of war.

“Unilateral military adventurism by any side is unacceptable, and will only aggravate tensions and instability in the region,” Zhai told Zarif and senior officials from other Middle East countries at the Tehran Dialogue Forum, a regional security event.

Zhai’s trip, along with China’s other diplomatic manoeuvring since the Soleimani assassination on January 3, emphasised China’s deepening interests and influence in the Middle East, and its warming ties with Iran, at a time when both countries are under pressure from the Trump administration, observers said.

The heightened tensions between the US and Iran have also sparked a debate in China, with many asking whether Beijing could inadvertently benefit from the stand-off.

Gal Luft, co-director of the Washington-based Institute for the Analysis of Global Security, said the crisis could present an opportunity for Beijing.

“China maintains good relations with Tehran; it is Iran’s main trading partner, so it can be in the best position to urge Iran to respond to the assassination in a measured way – satisfying its urge for vengeance yet not potent enough to give Trump an excuse to escalate even further and torch the entire region,” Luft said.

“As Washington is forced to shift substantial military forces to the Middle East, the US will have less resources to counter China’s activities in the Indo-Pacific and in countries involved in [China’s transcontinental infrastructure strategy] the Belt and Road Initiative.”

For Iran, China is a powerful ally to counter the US’ pressure and tightening sanctions, especially with Tehran isolated by its allies and regional powers, such as Israel and Saudi Arabia.

After withdrawing from the Iran nuclear deal in August 2018, Trump imposed tough sanctions on Iran and threatened to punish countries that continued to trade with Tehran. China is one of the last remaining buyers of Iran’s oil.

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For China, Iran remains an important energy supplier despite the US’ sweeping oil bans. Tehran is also a key player in the expanding belt and road. In 2016, during Chinese President Xi Jinping’s state visit to Tehran, Beijing promised to increase bilateral trade to US$600 billion in a decade.

When asked whether China would benefit from the tensions, a senior US state department official urged China to exert pressure on Iran.

“That is their best way forward – not to take advantage of this,” the official said in a briefing on Tuesday. “Deep down, they know that what we’re doing is maintaining stability. I would hope that they support that in every way they can.”

Even if efforts to de-escalate fail, there could be a strategic prize for China if the US were dragged into yet another Middle East quagmire.

China’s former ambassador to Iran, Hua Liming, said there was a consensus among China experts in the US that the aftermath of September 11, along with the financial crisis a decade ago, had created periods of “strategic opportunity” for China.

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In a speech in November, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called on his country’s diplomats to work tirelessly to make good use of a strategic period in which “today’s China is approaching the centre of the world stage as never before”.

“Most importantly, the US will have to adjust its great power competition [with China] as the No 1 priority for its foreign strategy,” Yun Sun, a senior fellow at the Stimson Centre in Washington, said. “This means China will get some breathing room after three years of being singled out as the largest threat to US national security.”

But most experts cautioned against China pinning too much hope on profiting from the chaos in the Middle East.

Michael Swaine, a senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said that although China may feel relieved to see the US distracted by Iran, “there is a limit to that” given China’s heavy dependence on the Middle East for oil.

Li Guofu, a senior research fellow at the China Institute of International Studies – a think tank affiliated to the Chinese foreign ministry in Beijing – said it would be shortsighted and too simplistic to believe China stood to gain from the tensions.

“China’s regional, economic and energy interests are prone to instability, especially after Beijing pulled out all the stops to promote the belt and road,” Li said. “China’s rivalry with the US could last decades. It cannot afford to make decisions based on short-term gain.”

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Observers also noted that similar questions had been asked before, such as when Syrian President Bashar al-Assad was accused of using chemical weapons in 2014 and 2015, prompting US air strikes. That did not turn into an opportunity for China despite hopes that it would, Sun said.

“Every time there is an escalation of tension in the Middle East, China thinks or hopes the US will be bogged down and China will have another window of strategic opportunity,” she said.

Most observers expected Beijing to continue to use its diplomatic clout in the Iran-US crisis – but they cast doubt on Beijing’s ability to mediate effectively.

“China remains a new player in the region and fortunately not burdened with legacies,” Hua said. “That allows it to maintain balanced relations with almost all parties and promote dialogue as a peacemaker.

“However, mediation between Iran and the US, which it could have helped broker in the past, looks increasingly unlikely because of China’s relations with the US spiralling downward, plagued by so many issues.”

Any mediating role for Beijing could also be complicated by its arms trading with Tehran. China became Iran’s top source of arms during the Iran-Iraq war in the 1980s, selling weaponry worth more than US$3 billion.

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And China was one of Iran’s top three arms transfer partners between 2008 and 2018, exporting US$269 million of weapons, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Yun said that China’s stake in the Middle East may give it only a limited role.

“Its interest in the Middle East is relatively limited to energy resources, and it is detached from regional politics,” she said. “That gives China a limited role, although it is not a bad position. China’s position in the Middle East is sufficient to protect its interests without additional costs.”