US and China tipped to get tougher on climate change when John Kerry visits in September

China and the United States – the world’s top two carbon polluters – are expected to seek solid progress in the fight against climate change during John Kerry’s expected visit next month, according to sources familiar with the matter.

It will be the US special climate envoy and former top diplomat’s second visit to China in five months, coming at a time when overall bilateral tensions are at their highest in decades.

The two countries will continue discussions on efforts to tackle climate change as listed on the joint announcement released in April during Kerry’s first visit, one of the sources said, requesting anonymity.

The two sides are expected to announce further specific actions to reduce carbon emissions, the source said.

Queried on the expected visit, a Chinese foreign ministry spokesman on Wednesday said he had no information to release on the matter.

Kerry’s visit comes just weeks ahead of a key United Nations climate meeting: the 26th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP26) in Glasgow in November, where nations are expected to enhance their targets to reduce the amount of greenhouse gas emissions within this decade.

Beijing and Washington have in recent months been at loggerheads over a range of issues including the origins of Covid-19, human rights, the hi-tech sector, Taiwan and the South China Sea, although they have not ruled out space for cooperation.

A climate observer said Kerry’s visit carries significance for bilateral relations that goes beyond the agenda of his trip.

“Under the current bilateral background, John Kerry will visit China for the second time. The two countries don’t have such communication on other issues,” said Li Shuo, a senior global policy adviser for Greenpeace East Asia.

“It shows that they have isolated the climate issue from other bilateral issues, though it is unavoidable [the climate issue] will be affected … [but] to some extent the two countries can collaborate.”

Kerry, secretary of state under Barack Obama from 2013 to 2017, was the first senior figure in the Biden administration to visit China when he travelled to Shanghai in April. Deputy secretary of state Wendy Sherman followed in July.

After two days of closed-door talks between Kerry and his Chinese counterpart Xie Zhenhua in Shanghai, they released a joint statement, pledging to work together and with other countries to tackle climate change. Kerry also took part in a video conference with Vice-Premier Han Zheng.

It is unclear which Chinese city Kerry will visit this time around.

In their statement in April, the two sides vowed to develop long-term strategies aimed at net-zero greenhouse gas emissions and reducing non-carbon dioxide emissions, including a phase-down of hydrofluorocarbon (HFC) production and consumption. HFCs are greenhouse gases mostly used in refrigeration and air conditioning equipment.

And on June 17, China ratified the Kigali Amendment to the Montreal Protocol to phase down HFCs.

Addressing a webinar earlier this month, Xie asserted that China’s carbon neutrality goal included all greenhouse gases, not just carbon dioxide.

He also rejected attempts to “rewrite” the Paris Agreement – to upgrade worldwide goals to keep global warming over pre-industrial levels at 1.5 degrees Celsius instead of 2 degrees.

The Paris Agreement aims to avoid dangerous climate change by limiting global warming to well below 2 degrees Celsius and pursuing efforts to limit it to 1.5 degrees.

China is under increasing pressure from climate advocates calling for it to bring forward its 2060 carbon neutrality target to 2050. A report by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2018 called for limiting temperature rise to 1.5 degrees. But that would require countries to achieve carbon neutrality by 2050, not 2060, according to a report by Science earlier this month.

Xie said countries should take action and deliver on their commitments, instead of arguing over whether the target should be 1.5 or 2 degrees. However, Li at Greenpeace East Asia said China needed to deal with this issue before COP26, including during Kerry’s visit.

“China’s official statement is that it will maintain the original target in the Paris Agreement, but it’s going to be tough. The joint communique adopted by G20 climate and energy ministers [in July] went further [on the 1.5 degrees target] compared to the Paris Agreement,” Li said. “China needs to find a balance that both itself and other countries can accept. That’s a tough proposition.”