Caution at the Vatican amid US-China tussle over Taiwan

The Vatican has become more cautious about changing its diplomatic relationship with Taiwan as the island becomes the focus of growing diplomatic wrangling over the island by Beijing and Washington, according to observers.

The Vatican is one of Taipei’s 15 diplomatic allies, but has long expressed desire to revive its official ties with Beijing – a relationship that was severed in 1951.

In a step towards reviving the relationship, Beijing and the Holy See reached a provisional agreement in 2018 on the appointment of Chinese bishops.

But that progress has been complicated as tensions have grown between Beijing and Washington over Taiwan, raising concerns about whether the two powers are edging towards conflict.

Beijing’s growing assertiveness on the island has sent a deep sense of unease through Vatican officials, according to Franco Massimo, a political columnist with Italian newspaper, Corriere della Sera.

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In an article earlier this month, Massimo quoted a Vatican diplomat as saying that China had demanded the Holy See cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan but the Vatican instead requested an embassy be set up in Beijing before it would begin reviewing its ties with Taipei.

The Vatican could also come under pressure from the United States, he said.

“[The Vatican is] in a wait and see stage for better opportunities and more favourable conditions before they will move things forward [with China],” Massimo said.

“If the US is pressing the Vatican to form a democratic alliance against China, this will put Rome under even more pressure.”

Pope Francis and US President Joe Biden have spoken in recent days, meeting on the sidelines of the G20 meeting in Rome on Friday. But the meeting did not touch on relations with Beijing.

Observers said the move towards formal diplomatic recognition between the Holy See and Beijing was likely to remain a slow and gradual process.

Anthony Lam Sui-ki, a Catholic affairs expert with Hong Kong Shue Yan University’s journalism and communication department, said the Vatican was taking a more cautious approach with its request for an embassy as a first step.

“Historically, the Vatican has always been ready to switch diplomatic ties from Taipei to Beijing. If anything, the latest gesture only suggested a toughened stance,” Lam said.

“In the long run, the Vatican will definitely cut diplomatic ties with Taiwan. It’s just the matter of when,” he said, adding that cutting diplomatic ties with Taiwan did not mean the Vatican would sever all links with the island.

“Even though the US cut ties with Taiwan in 1979, it remained Taipei’s most important partner in terms of trade, and academic and cultural exchanges. Diplomatic ties are just one of the many forms of relationships.”

Lawrence Reardon, associate professor specialising in Chinese politics with the University of New Hampshire, said the Vatican would continue with a “status quo approach” and observe how Beijing implemented its religious policies at home.

“While the Vatican would like to move the embassy, it remains concerned with the changing situation of the church in Greater China, as sinification [of religions] on the mainland and the national security law in Hong Kong are having a greater impact on religious organisations,” Reardon said.

“With such uncertainty, the Vatican no doubt is concerned that any changes it makes in bilateral relations could have a detrimental impact on the Catholic Church in Taiwan and Hong Kong.”

Reardon said the establishment of formal diplomatic ties with Beijing would be a long and gradual process because Beijing would be equally reluctant to allow the Vatican to play a greater role in managing the Catholic Church in China.