US defence report flags China’s expanding military reach in the Arctic

Chinese military activity in the Arctic could pave the way for a strengthened presence there that included the deployment of submarines as a deterrent against nuclear attack, the US Department of Defence said in a report released on Thursday.

The assessment was included in the US military’s annual report to Congress on China’s armed forces and followed Beijing’s publication of its first official Arctic policy white paper in June.

In that paper, China outlined plans to develop lanes for shipping opened by global warming to form a “Polar Silk Road” – building on President Xi Jinping’s “Belt and Road Initiative”.

China, a non-Arctic state, is increasingly active in the polar region and became an observer member of the Arctic Council in 2013. That prompted concerns from Arctic states over Beijing’s long-term objectives, including possible military goals.

US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo will attend the meeting of the eight-nation Arctic Council in Rovaniemi, Finland, from Monday, amid growing concerns over China’s increased commercial interests in the Arctic.

The Pentagon report said Denmark had expressed concern about China’s interest in Greenland, which has included proposals to establish a research station and a satellite ground station, renovate airports and expand mining.

“Civilian research could support a strengthened Chinese military presence in the Arctic Ocean, which could include deploying submarines to the region as a deterrent against nuclear attacks,” the report said.

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The report said China’s military had made modernising its submarine fleet a high priority. The PLA Navy operated four nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines, six nuclear-powered attack submarines and 50 conventionally powered attack submarines, the report said.

“The speed of growth of the submarine force has slowed and [it] is likely to grow to between 65 and 70 submarines by 2020,” the report predicted.

It said China had built six Jin-class submarines, with four operational and two under construction at Huludao Shipyard in Liaoning province.

In a January report, the Pentagon’s Defence Intelligence Agency said the Chinese navy would need a minimum of five Jin-class submarines to maintain a continuous nuclear deterrence at sea.

The US and its allies, in turn, are expanding their anti-submarine naval deployments across East Asia. This included stepped-up patrols of America’s advanced, submarine-hunting P-8 Poseidon planes based in Singapore and Japan.

The expansion of China’s submarine forces was one element of a broad, and costly, modernisation of its military, which US analysts said was designed largely to deter any action by America’s armed forces.

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Although Beijing’s official defence budget for 2018 was US$175 billion, the Pentagon estimated that it actually topped US$200 billion, when research, development and foreign weapons procurement were included. It estimated that China’s official defence budget would be likely to grow to about US$260 billion by 2022.

Much of China’s military doctrine was focused on self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing sees as a renegade province, the report said.

On January 2, Xi said in a speech that China reserved the right to use force to take Taiwan under its control but would strive to achieve peaceful “reunification”.

The Pentagon report outlined a number of possible scenarios that China might pursue if Beijing decided to use military force on Taiwan, including a comprehensive campaign “designed to force Taiwan to capitulate to unification, or unification dialogue”.

But the US analysis appeared to play down prospects for a large-scale amphibious Chinese invasion, saying that could strain its armed forces and invite international intervention. It also mentioned the possibility of limited missile strikes.

“China could use missile attacks and precision air strikes against air defence systems, including airbases, radar sites, missiles, space assets, and communications facilities to degrade Taiwan’s defences, neutralise Taiwan’s leadership, or break the Taiwan people’s resolve,” the report said.

China has repeatedly sent military aircraft and ships to circle the island on drills in the past few years and worked to isolate Taiwan internationally, whittling down its diplomatic allies.

It has also strongly objected to US warship passages through the Taiwan Strait, which have greatly increased in frequency in the past year.

Taiwan’s military is significantly smaller than China’s, a gap that the Pentagon said was growing year by year.

Recognising the disparity, the report said: “Taiwan has stated that it is working to develop new concepts and capabilities for asymmetric warfare.”