Source:
https://scmp.com/news/china/military/article/3013119/how-shangri-la-dialogue-turned-diplomatic-coup-china
China/ Military

How the Shangri-La Dialogue turned into a diplomatic coup for China

  • Richard Heydarian writes that China’s neighbours seem more worried about a power conflict than Beijing’s growing Indo-Pacific footprint
  • Few seem ready to openly rally behind America’s call for jointly confronting China
Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe has signalled that Beijing will continue to shape the Indo-Pacific in its own image. Photo: Reuters

Reflecting on the future of geopolitics, the legendary Singaporean statesman Lee Kuan Yew said: “The size of China’s displacement of the world balance is such that the world must find a new balance.”

Once the Chinese steamroller gets into motion, the late prime minister said, “it is not possible to pretend that this is just another big player. This is the biggest player in the history of the world”.

Over the past decade, the echoes of this seismic geopolitical shift have been perfectly on display at the Shangri-La Dialogue, the most prestigious defence forum in the Indo-Pacific, annually hosted by Singapore.

The summit brings together no less than senior defence officials and leading strategic experts from all across the world. It serves as the chief register of the regional geopolitical temperature and its likely trajectory in the coming decades.

Acting US defence secretary Patrick Shanahan (left) and China’s Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe meet at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Photo: Kyodo
Acting US defence secretary Patrick Shanahan (left) and China’s Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe meet at the Shangri-La Dialogue. Photo: Kyodo

The latest meeting exposed how everyone, including the United States, is still confounded by China’s rise, not only as an economic behemoth but as a major regional military power.

Instead of serving as an avenue to isolate China, the event served as a diplomatic coup for Beijing.

The show’s unexpected star was no less than Chinese Defence Minister General Wei Fenghe, the first high-level Chinese representative at the event in almost a decade.

The general pulled no punches in signalling to the world that Beijing will hold its ground, retaliate against any interference in its domestic affairs and continue its march toward shaping the Indo-Pacific in its own image.

This was an unexpected turn of events, since many observers eagerly anticipated the maiden global speech by US acting defence secretary Patrick Shanahan.

For weeks, senior Pentagon officials promoted the speech as a game-changing event that would unveil a new and more robust strategy aimed at reasserting American primacy in the Indo-Pacific.

Shanahan’s speech was a disappointment for those who expected an articulation of a strategy to constrain China’s revisionist policies, particularly in the East and South China Seas

Shanahan, who is yet to undergo his confirmation hearings at the US Senate, quickly defended the Trump administration’s escalating sanctions on Chinese national champions, particularly on Huawei Technologies.

Claiming that these companies were “too close to the [Chinese] government”, he argued that they represented a potential national security threat to America and its allies.

For the past six months, the Trump administration has assiduously sought to dissuade allies from signing up for Huawei’s 5G technology, claiming doing so would undermine intelligence-sharing and the security of the allies’ critical infrastructure.

Having failed to rally many allies, including some in western Europe, Washington now seems to have gone for the jugular, aiming to suffocate Chinese global companies, if push comes to shove.

Over the past month, Huawei has lost many of its Western software and core technology partners, raising questions over the telecommunications giant’s viability without a settlement with Washington soon.

The acting Pentagon chief, who formerly served as an executive at Boeing, also emphasised America’s centrality to economics in China’s region.

America’s total foreign direct investment stock in the region is close to US$1.3 trillion, larger than all key East Asian economies combined, while bilateral trade in recent years has reached a high of US$2.3 trillion.

The problem, however, is that the Trump administration is yet to agree to any credible multilateral trade and investment offer after scrapping its predecessor’s much-touted Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement.

In many ways, the US seems like an enervated empire riding on the momentum of its past prestige.

In contrast, China has put forward a plethora of bilateral and multilateral trade and investment agreements under its multibillion-dollar Belt and Road Initiative.

Shanahan’s speech was an even greater disappointment for those who expected a clear articulation of a new strategy to constrain China’s revisionist policies, particularly in the East and South China Seas.

Instead, the acting Pentagon chief only indirectly attacked China for its supposed usage of a “toolkit of coercion” to challenge a “free and open” order in the Indo-Pacific.

Not much was said on how, exactly, the Trump administration aims to constrain Chinese maritime and territorial ambitions while helping regional allies defend their interests accordingly.

After his speech, Shanahan was even conciliatory, stating that “competition” with China “does not mean conflict” and that “competition is not to be feared”. Instead, he said, “we should welcome it, provided that everyone plays by internationally established rules”.

General Wei, meanwhile, made it crystal clear that China would “fight until the end” and that the People’s Liberation Army would “make no promise to renounce the use of force” to reincorporate Taiwan into the mainland.

The defence chief’s speech signalled Beijing’s implacable determination to continue its current strategy of dominating adjacent waters through the militarisation of islands it has artificially created in the South China Sea and deploying paramilitary forces to disputed land features in the area.

Chinese naval troops patrol on Woody Island in the Paracel group. Photo: Reuters
Chinese naval troops patrol on Woody Island in the Paracel group. Photo: Reuters

To Beijing’s delight, few regional states, including US allies and China’s rival claimants in the area, openly rallied behind Washington.

As the Malaysian Defence Minister Mohamad Sabu put it: “We love America. But we also love China.”

He said how smaller countries preferred the region to “remain an area of peace, friendship and trade, rather than one of confrontation and conflict” between superpowers.

Meanwhile, Philippine Defence Secretary Delfin Lorenzana, representing a US treaty-allied nation, made it clear that his country’s “greatest fear” was the possibility of superpowers “sleepwalking into another international conflict”.

Many of China’s neighbours seem more worried about a great power conflict than Beijing’s growing economic and naval footprint across the Indo-Pacific.

Even fewer seemed ready to openly rally behind America’s call for jointly confronting China.

Richard Heydarian is a Manila-based academic and author