South China Sea: Beijing ‘doesn’t want to upset neighbours’ with air defence identification zone

Beijing is unlikely to declare an air defence identification zone in the South China Sea in the next few years because it is too “complicated”, but it may happen if the situation changes, according to a Chinese think tank and analysts.

In a commentary released on Monday, the Beijing-based SCS Strategic Situation Probing Initiative said the international community’s perception that China would set up an ADIZ over the disputed waters – as it did in the East China Sea seven years ago – was a “misinterpretation”.

The guest commentary by Chang Ching, a research fellow at the Society for Strategic Studies in Taipei, said even though the US had stepped up military activities in the area in recent years, China had no need to respond by declaring an ADIZ.

“In comparison with the situation of insufficient coverage extending seaward provided by the flight information region in the East China Sea, the airspace coverage provided by the Hong Kong flight information region and the Sanya flight information region under the Chinese civil aviation administrative system in the South China Sea is sufficient to support the depth needed for air defence target identification and classification operations,” he wrote.

But, if the level and intensity of foreign military aviation activities continued to grow and purposely approached airspace not covered by the Hong Kong and Sanya flight information regions, the People’s Liberation Army may fail to filter civil aviation activities, and Beijing may establish an ADIZ in the South China Sea, Chang said.

An air defence identification zone is airspace over a typically undisputed area of land or water in which the monitoring and control of aircraft is performed in the interests of national security. While many countries have them, the concept is not defined or regulated by any international treaty or agency.

Beijing set up an ADIZ in the East China Sea in late 2013, three years after Tokyo said it would expand its air defence zone that covers the Senkaku Islands. The group of uninhabited islands, known as the Diaoyus in Chinese, are controlled by Tokyo but also claimed by Beijing and Taipei, and China’s move was widely criticised for inflaming regional tensions.

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According to a Chinese military insider, think tanks and strategists in Beijing have been working on plans for a South China Sea ADIZ since 2010 – the same year they started working on the East China Sea air defence zone – but the proposal is on hold for now.

“The situation in the South China Sea is so different and more complicated than in the East China Sea, where the disputes are just between China, Japan and South Korea,” said the insider, who requested anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

“China doesn’t want to upset so many of its Southeast Asian neighbours,” he said. “The People’s Liberation Army now realises that China’s national interests won’t be harmed if it lets the US warships and aircraft conduct their so-called freedom of navigation operations in international waters in the region.”

Beijing claims most of the strategic, resource-rich South China Sea, while Vietnam, the Philippines, Taiwan, Malaysia and Brunei have competing claims.

With tensions rising across the Taiwan Strait, and PLA warplanes regularly entering Taiwanese airspace in recent months, Beijing could also be considering an ADIZ near the self-ruled island that overlaps with Taiwan’s airspace, according to Lu Li-shih, a former instructor at the Taiwanese Naval Academy and patrol corvette captain.

“Given that the PLA’s Type 003 aircraft carriers and Type 075 amphibious assault ships haven’t yet formally attained combat capability … the odds of [the PLA] invading Taiwan aren’t that high,” Lu said. “But judging by the PLA’s actions near the southeast corner of Taiwan’s ADIZ and the Taipei-controlled Pratas Islands, it looks likely that this area will soon be declared an ADIZ.”

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However, Beijing-based military expert Zhou Chenming said a South China Sea ADIZ that just covered the Pratas Islands would be “meaningless”.

“An ADIZ in the South China Sea would be likely to cover the Pratas, Paracel and Spratly islands, but the Spratlys are also the most problematic and the most complicated in terms of political, diplomatic and military issues,” Zhou said, adding that this was why Beijing would be reluctant to go ahead with the plan.

“China doesn’t see any need to make such a controversial move in this region,” he said. “The main purpose of an ADIZ is to decrease aviation disputes by identifying different kinds of aircraft, with more than 99 per cent being civilian planes – not to create more trouble.”