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China/ Politics

Can Xi Jinping turn China’s political theatre into a hit one-man show?

Politicians gather this week in Beijing to approve the new five-year plan. But behind the scenes, another ambitious agenda will play out – the president’s push to cement loyalty to his leadership

The Great Hall of the People in Beijing, where the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference will meet beginning on March 3, and the National People’s Congress, which kicks off on March 5. Photo: Simon Song

The upcoming “two sessions” – the annual meeting of the country’s legislature and elite political advisers – is the biggest show in Chinese politics. Once a year, thousands of “elected” representatives and appointed delegates make the pilgrimage to Beijing to give their approval to national policies.

The main purpose of the upcoming session of the Chinese People’s Political Consultative Conference – which starts on March 3 – and the National People’s Congress – which gets under way on March 5 – is to endorse the next five-year plan. The blueprint, which aims to double gross domestic product and per capita income from levels a decade earlier, is central to President Xi Jinping’s ambition to realise the “Chinese dream” during his expected 10-year tenure.

This year, though, political pundits will also be watching for any winds of change blowing though the Great Hall of the People. The world’s last major communist-ruled nation has undergone a significant change in how it’s governed since the days of Mao Zedong, who led as an autocrat until his death in 1976. To avoid the infighting and witch hunts that defined much of his rule, the party then switched to a consensus approach to decision-making.

The NPC meeting last year. Any cracks in Communist Party unity will likely to well hidden from the outside world. Photo: Xinhua
The NPC meeting last year. Any cracks in Communist Party unity will likely to well hidden from the outside world. Photo: Xinhua

Mao’s successor Deng Xiaoping had to share power with the “Eight Immortals” or party elders. But in the past three years, the pendulum has swung back the other way, with Xi consolidating power through the creation of steering committees that oversee reform, the internet, legal affairs, national security and military reform.

Whereas Xi’s predecessor Hu Jintao was “first among equals”, the current president wants to be the “core of the party’s leadership”. Towards this end, at least half the provincial party chiefs have publicly pledged allegiance to Xi, echoing a campaign under Mao during the last 10 years of his rule.

In addition to the steering committees, Xi has extended his grip over the nation in less formal channels, expunging political dissent by rounding up rights activists and courageous lawyers while banning party members from making “groundless criticism” of policies.

Ostensibly, the five-year plan is the focus of the two upcoming sessions at the Great Hall of the People. But given the recent transformation of the presidency, observers will be listening to remarks by Xi’s Politburo colleagues to see whether they are falling in line with his call for “absolute loyalty”.

ELITE DISCONTENT?

Some foreign observers say Xi’s heavy-handed tactics have created an “atmosphere of fear” that reflect his ambition to quash resistance and criticism from political elites both within and outside the establishment. Renmin University political science professor Zhang Ming said Xi would likely impose tougher controls over the media’s coverage of the sessions to ensure the message presented is one of harmony and unity. “It is because there is such controversy that he will not tolerate any dissenting voices at the two sessions,” Zhang said.

But historically, the sessions have offered an opportunity for limited disagreement. And given that disruptions to the status quo under Xi’s rule, with so many established rules broken, with so many key players sidelined or reprimanded, and so many blocs of power realigned, the impetus to speak out or signal dissatisfaction, albeit it in a veiled way, could be stronger now.

Neither the legislature nor the advisory body has any real power, but many members wield significant political power. As do the members with ties to the military.
Deputies to the 12th National People's Congress from the PLA enter the Great Hall of the People last March. The military is in the midst of an intense shake-up, and ensuring the loyalty of the top brass is crucial for Xi to carry out his agenda. Photo: Xinhua
Deputies to the 12th National People's Congress from the PLA enter the Great Hall of the People last March. The military is in the midst of an intense shake-up, and ensuring the loyalty of the top brass is crucial for Xi to carry out his agenda. Photo: Xinhua

Xi is in the process of shaking up the People’s Liberation Army, rooting out entrenched corruption and remoulding its hierarchy to make it more professional and modern. Although top generals have made a show of saluting the party flag, the loyalty drive is conspicuous because its intensity and protracted duration suggests the fight is not easy to win.

Observers will be watching for signs of dissatisfaction over the overhaul of the PLA, as well as the top management of state firms, where salaries have been cut and unproductive companies put into the cross hairs amid the drive to shed dead weight in the economy.

Even strongman Xi must marshal their support, and it will be interesting to see whether the top brass and powerful businessmen step up their flattery.

Steve Tsang, from the School of Contemporary Chinese Studies at the University of Nottingham, said there might be voices of frustration on the fringe, but he did not expect any coordinated challenge to Xi.

“Be it on the reorganisation of the military regions into combat commands or the party’s general management of the economy or the financial sector,” he said. “Discontent is likely to remain just below the surface,” Tsang said.

SMOKE SIGNALS

Observers will also be on the lookout for clues to changes in politics, diplomacy and economics. In terms governing at home, China watchers point to a possible formal pronouncement – perhaps at the NPC – to reinforce Xi’s status as supreme leader.

Tsang said the legislature would likely openly affirm Xi’s new “position” as the core of the leadership – a recognition that Hu never obtained.

“The senior officials at the meetings will be requested and required to not deviate from the ‘hymn sheet’ that Xi” and Premier Li Keqiang will use, he said.

International relations experts will be examining statements for clues about Xi’s “new diplomacy”. Since Xi took office, China has shifted its attention outwards to unseen levels, from ramping up its “soft power” cultural push to launching the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank, establishing an air defence identification zone in the East China Sea and bolstering its claim in the disputed South China Sea. Some of these moves have rattled neighbours, as well as the West. So far, China has shown little willingness to compromise, and observers wonder how far Beijing’s foreign policy will be reshaped by Xi’s “new diplomacy”.

Finally, international markets will be watching for clues on what direction the world’s second-largest economy takes. Where it once helped drive global growth, the economy is now viewed by many as a major source of risk. China’s economic policies for the year ahead will have consequences that extend far beyond its borders.

Media attend a press conference at last year’s sessions. China’s economic policies for the year ahead will have consequences that extend far beyond its borders. Photo: Xinhua
Media attend a press conference at last year’s sessions. China’s economic policies for the year ahead will have consequences that extend far beyond its borders. Photo: Xinhua

And there are problems at home as well. The government’s capacity to manage the economy has come under greater scrutiny, with concern stoked by the persistent slowdown in growth, the stock market meltdown last year, the surprising yuan devaluation and massive capital outflow.

But instead of responding swiftly and with confidence, Beijing has only become more nervous and indecisive. It has teetered between introducing free market reform to solve structural problems and continues its engrained habit of state intervention.

Earlier pledges to allow market forces to play a “decisive role” in the allocation of resources and introduce supply-side reform have been pushed to the sidelines.

NEW FACES

Some China watchers are hoping the sessions will reveal clues to Xi’s political favourites ahead of the leadership transition next year. The 19th Party Congress, the first under Xi, will see five of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee – everyone except the president and premier – retire because of their age. Another six members in the 25-strong Politburo, the party’s second-most powerful body, will also step down as they would have passed the compulsory retirement age of 68 by 2017.
The sessions are expected to reveal clues to Xi Jinping’s political favourites ahead of the leadership transition next year, when five of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee are replaced. The current line-up: (left to right) Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli. Photos: Reuters
The sessions are expected to reveal clues to Xi Jinping’s political favourites ahead of the leadership transition next year, when five of the seven members of the Politburo Standing Committee are replaced. The current line-up: (left to right) Xi Jinping, Li Keqiang, Zhang Dejiang, Yu Zhengsheng, Liu Yunshan, Wang Qishan and Zhang Gaoli. Photos: Reuters

Analysts expect Xi to make the reshuffle a priority this year. He has already taken steps to promote his top aides and associates to personally take charge of matters under the jurisdiction of other cabinet ministers. The experts will also be tracking the movements at the event of Xi’s top aides, including vice-ministerial level officials like Liu He, who surprised the international community by speaking with US Treasury Secretary Jack Lew about China’s exchange rate policies. That duty usually falls to Vice-Premier Wang Yang. Observers will also be watching throughout the 10-day session to see whether Xi publicly endorses any political favourites when he visits various panels.

But Kerry Brown, a professor of Chinese studies at King’s College, London, doubted outsiders would be able to discern who Xi taps as the successors.

“It is so heavily choreographed and ideologically policed, and the script has already been written with the five-year programme being the chief item on the menu,” he said.

“Of course, on the sidelines we will be able to observe things – personnel present and missing, and the overall atmosphere and tone of the event.”

Brown added he imagined the emphasis would be on resolution, unity and strength, and any cracks would be hidden well away.

Kamel Mellahi, an expert in China’s political economy at Warwick Business School, said institutions often sought to reduce uncertainty during times of major changes.

“Therefore, one expects the NPC session to firm up, rather than diffuse, Xi’s status and authority.”