Climate change: can China eliminate heavy air pollution by 2025?

China’s government has set an ambitious target that would essentially eliminate the country’s notorious heavy pollution days by 2025.

In a joint action plan issued by 15 central government agencies on Friday, authorities said they aim to eliminate heavy air pollution in more than 230 cities across the country by 2025.

The plan also intends to cut the emissions of two ozone precursors – volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides – by more than 10 per cent by 2025 compared with 2020 levels.

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China defines heavily polluted days as periods with an air quality index (AQI) level over 200, which is considered “very unhealthy” or “hazardous”. On Friday afternoon, six cities in northern China recorded AQI levels above 200, according to the China National Environmental Monitoring Centre.

Ma Jun, director of the Beijing-based Institute of Public & Environmental Affairs, said: “It is an urgent problem that needs to be solved in tackling air pollution, and it has the greatest impact on the public’s health and quality of life.

“The [2025] goal is challenging, but it is very significant.”

China’s air quality has improved significantly over the past decade, especially after a campaign launched in 2013 to tackle smog and air pollution.

China’s percentage drop in pollution between 2013 and 2020 took decades to achieve in the US, and accounted for more than three-quarters of the global decline in pollution, according to a study by the University of Chicago in February.

The concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5), a key indicator of air pollution, dropped from 80 micrograms per cubic meter in 2015 to 33 in 2021.

The capital recorded 10 days of heavy air pollution last year, a drop of nearly 80 per cent since 2015, according to the Ministry of Ecology and Environment.

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However, heavy air pollution is still a challenge for cities dominated by fossil fuels and heavy industry. In 2021, 28 cities in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region recorded an average of 11 days of heavy air pollution, six more days than the national average.

“[Heavy pollution] mainly occurs in some key regions, and the population affected by it is still very large,” Ma said. “It will be a significant improvement if we can basically eliminate days of heavy air pollution.”

The action plan also aims to contain ozone pollution while mitigating PM2.5. Ground-level ozone results from photochemical reactions between nitrogen oxides and VOCs in the presence of sunlight. It has become the primary air pollutant in summer in China.

Nitrogen oxides and VOCs are emitted from a wide range of sources, including vehicles, power plants, industrial boilers, chemical plants, and paints and solvents. As a result, reducing ozone pollution is another challenging task.

Chinese industries are being urged to accelerate transitions to low VOC materials and carry out ultra-low emission retrofits in key sectors, including steel, cement and coking, to reduce nitrogen oxide emissions.

The action plan also includes accelerating the transport sector’s transition to clean and low-carbon fuels with an aim of reducing nitrogen oxide emissions from diesel trucks by 12 per cent by 2025.