China’s new winter smog targets too low to reverse last year’s surge, its data shows

A new winter plan to curb emissions in northern China will not be enough to reverse last year’s sharp increase, official data shows, raising concerns that a weakening economy is eroding Beijing’s resolve to tackle pollution.

In an action plan for October 2019 to March 2020, China said 28 smog-prone northern cities, including the capital Beijing, would have to curb emissions of lung-damaging small particles known as PM2.5 by an average of 4 per cent from a year ago.

The particles are a major component of the smog that engulfs China’s northern regions over winter as people switch on coal-fired heating systems.

However, the targeted decrease is 1.5 percentage points lower than an earlier draft, and would not be enough to reverse a 6.5 per cent surge throughout the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region over the same period last year.

Last year’s jump came even though authorities targeted a cut of 3 per cent, with efforts derailed by warmer weather and an increase in industrial activity after regions were given more flexibility to devise their own anti-smog measures.

This year’s lowered ambitions meant that as many as 15 of the 28 cities could have higher levels of smog than two years ago, even if they met their targets, said Lauri Myllyvirta, senior analyst with Greenpeace.

An environment ministry official acknowledged last week that China’s pollution situation was still “serious”, with PM2.5 in the region up 1.9 per cent in the first three quarters.

In setting this year’s targets, China had to consider “maintaining stability” as well as “actual working conditions” in each location, the official said in a statement, adding that there were risks the goals would not be met.

Only four of the 28 cities – Beijing, Handan, Cangzhou and Jining – met targets last winter, official data showed.

PM2.5 levels in Anyang, China’s most polluted city last winter, soared 13.7 per cent last year. It is targeting a 6.5 per cent cut this year. Nearby Puyang will target a 6 per cent fall this year, even though its average PM2.5 surged more than 20 per cent a year ago.

The environment ministry has been at pains to say China’s “war on pollution” would not be affected by slowing economic growth, with local governments no longer judged merely on crude economic growth.

Coal bites back in China amid worries over supply

But there have already been signs Beijing would compromise, with Premier Li Keqiang saying earlier this month that China remained dependent on coal and would encourage clean and green mining.

China’s coal imports were also set to rise more than 10 per cent this year, driven by loosened customs restrictions aimed at boosting the economy, analysts said.

“The lower air quality targets seem to reflect changed priorities,” Myllyvirta said. “The policymakers have let chimney industries rebound, even if it means slowing progress on air quality.”