Coronavirus: Hong Kong urged to maintain ‘dynamic zero-Covid’ policy, with Beijing officials and state media warning shift will mean disaster for city

Beijing officials and state media have been urging Hong Kong to stick with the “dynamic zero-Covid” strategy, warning that any shift towards “living with the virus” will result in disaster for the city and the deferment of any resumption of quarantine-free travel with mainland China.

The warnings, from a senior mainland health official and the Communist Party mouthpiece People’s Daily, came as Hong Kong reported 614 new coronavirus infections on Monday, the highest daily number since the pandemic began two years ago.

“The so-called ‘living with the virus’ strategy has not been scientifically proven. Implementing it will bring enormous pressure on the medical system, not to mention resumption of quarantine-free travel with the mainland,” People’s Daily said in a commentary.

Ahead of a meeting of the Executive Council, the Hong Kong leader’s de facto cabinet, member Dr Lam Ching-choi told the Post the city did not have the conditions to relax social-distancing measures or open up unless the vaccination rate – including for the elderly – reached 90 per cent. Currently it sits at around 80 per cent of the overall eligible population but the rate is much lower among the elderly.

Former Hospital Authority chief executive Leung Pak-yin, however, said further tightening measures aimlessly would not be effective in taming the fifth wave – fuelled by the highly contagious Omicron variant – as he expected the daily caseload to reach four digits within three days.

He added that whether one could cross the border without quarantining should not be restrained by the government’s anti-epidemic strategy but his or her own infection risk.

So far, the government has adhered to a strategy of “dynamic zero infections”, a phrase first coined by mainland authorities.

Under stringent social-distancing measures, many establishments were forced to shut, with public gatherings limited to four people. Long lines also formed outside screening stations over the weekend, as compulsory testing orders were handed to more than 60 premises.

Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor last month said “dynamic zero infections” did not mean Hong Kong had to reach zero cases for the border to reopen. But she did not explain the difference between “dynamic zero” and “zero” infections, saying she did not come up with the phrase so could not give “an authoritative explanation” about it.

Elaborating on the concept on Monday, the People’s Daily commentary said “dynamic zero-Covid’’ did not mean the pursuit of “zero infections”, but an overall strategy aimed at “early discovery, speedy handling … effective treatment, so the pandemic will not cause continuous community transmission”.

It said: “[The strategy] embodies an anti-epidemic concept that prioritises people and lives, which has also been proven to achieve maximum results with minimum cost.”

In line with the article, National Health Commission disease control expert Liang Wannian told a local television show the “dynamic zero” strategy was still applicable to Hong Kong, which he regarded as “a city of higher risk”, considering the financial hub’s dense population and frequent international exchanges.

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He suggested that policymakers trace close contacts of patients through big data informatics and expand the scope of mass testing.

“We can live with the virus only after there is more effective medication … It’s too early to ‘lay flat’,” he said, using a popular phrase for doing nothing.

Lau Siu-kai, vice-president of semi-official think tank the Chinese Association of Hong Kong and Macau Studies, said he believed Beijing had attempted to prevent those affected by stringent Covid-related measures from undermining the city government’s credibility.

“Public distrust in the anti-epidemic efforts could pose resistance to the government’s efforts in implementing other policies,” he said.

Recent surveys showed residents held divergent views about strategies to tackle the current wave of infections.

A Democratic Party poll last month showed that 65 per cent of respondents said Hong Kong should study or prepare for living with the virus. Another one around the same time by the pro-Beijing Bauhinia Institute found that 68 per cent agreed that adopting the “dynamic zero-Covid” strategy would be in line with the interests of society.

Ex-Hospital Authority chief Leung was one of the few health professionals to have spoken out against the containment policy before the city’s daily tally hit three digits last month, saying it would be ineffective with large outbreaks.

Speaking to the Post on Monday, he urged policymakers against adopting “an old pathway” by aimlessly tightening social-distancing measures at public premises and conducting mass testing on a larger scale.

“It’s only wishful thinking if the government believes this wave of infections can be curbed through these measures alone,” he said, considering the highly transmissible nature of the Omicron variant.

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Instead, it should put its efforts into formulating contingency plans for the government, public bodies and hospitals for four-digit caseloads.

“You can’t simply close a place whenever one case is identified,” he said, suggesting asymptomatic patients be allowed to resume work after multiple rapid tests conducted over several days returned negative results.

Exco member Lam said the term “living with virus” could be confusing as people had different interpretations, yet Hong Kong would never take the “do-nothing” or “lay flat” approach like the United States or England.

The Hong Kong government would still devote its resources to quarantine and containment to control the spread of the virus.

“We have no other options at this point. The situation is now so severe that all of our measures have to be tough,” Lam said.

“It’s only when our overall population reaches a 90 per cent vaccination rate, including a high injection rate among the elderly, then we may consider some other approaches, such as relaxing some social-distancing measures.”

He added: “It does not matter what term or name people give the strategy. The most important thing is the government will never ‘lay flat’ and give up on controlling the pandemic, so people’s lives and livelihood will not be jeopardised.”

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Epidemiologist Professor Ben Cowling said while he could see the advantages of zero-Covid approaches, the city’s containment measures would become impractical because of the rising case numbers.

“I can see the advantages of the zero-Covid approach, but there’s no reason to expect that case numbers will drop under current control measures given that infections have been exponentially increasing in recent weeks,” he said.