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https://scmp.com/news/hong-kong/politics/article/3039662/hong-kong-elections-how-residents-all-ages-used-their-vote
Hong Kong/ Politics

What were voters in Hong Kong district council elections saying? They are mostly fed up – and the opposition is fuelled by anger

  • Analysts have generally called the tectonic outcome the result of people expressing their anger towards Beijing, the local government and police over handling of protests
  • Some might have been put off by violence, but they were turned off even more by the impasse blamed on the government
Analysts have generally called tectonic outcome the result of people expressing their anger towards Beijing, the local government and police over their handling of protests. Illustration: Perry Tse

Lift worker Chan Tsz-wai’s election campaign material consisted of a badly lit photograph of him in a green football jersey and his manifesto in Chinese was scrawled out in his own handwriting.

“I neither have Photoshop on my laptop nor any designing skills,” the 27-year-old said, referring to the design software typically used to embellish such publicity pamphlets.

The contrast between Chan’s posters and that of his rival Chris Ip Ngo-tung, 39, could not have been starker. Ip appeared in a sharp black suit with stylishly coiffed hair and had a neat, bilingual message.

On Sunday, Chan nudged out Ip, a rising star of the city’s biggest pro-establishment party who had served the area for 11 years, with just 65 more votes than Ip’s 1,451.

Chan Tsz-wai (top) laid out his election campaign with a poorly lit portrait and a handwritten manifesto. He still won. Photo: Handout
Chan Tsz-wai (top) laid out his election campaign with a poorly lit portrait and a handwritten manifesto. He still won. Photo: Handout

His campaign strategy? Attack Ip’s role as the incumbent chairman of the Yau Tsim Mong District Council, by then a tainted position thanks to the roiling protests of the past summer.

Ip and 17 other chairmen of the district councils – all then controlled by the pro-establishment, often dubbed the pro-Beijing camp – were behind a joint statement backing the government to fast-track the now-withdrawn extradition bill, bypassing the bills committee’s scrutiny.

This was just weeks before the debacle exploded in early June and sparked the long-running protests that morphed into a full-blown anti-government movement. The bill was eventually withdrawn but the likes of Ip never reclaimed their lost goodwill on the ground.

“As a district council chairman, Ip blindly supported the government and failed in his job to offer good advice to the administration,” Chan told the Post following his surprise victory.

Ip is part of the pro-Beijing camp now licking its wounds after a thrashing in Sunday’s elections, as it ceded control of 17 out of the 18 district councils. Chan was among the 392 pro-democracy politicians and novices who scored seats in a landslide victory, while their rivals had to settle on just 60 out of a total of 452 seats.

With that outcome, the majority of the nearly 3 million Hongkongers – or 71.2 per cent of total voters – had sent a strong message to Beijing and local authorities about their unhappiness with the status quo, turning the traditionally uneventful district council polls into a de facto referendum over political persuasion or, as candidates called it, a battle of “conscience”.

The huge number of seats, thanks to the first-past-the-post system of voting, suggests an overwhelming victory – but a closer look at the vote share suggests that the dramatic shift was a little more nuanced, with the pan-democrats garnering an additional 8 percentage points to get 55 per cent, compared to their performance of 47 per cent in the 2015 elections, while the pro-establishment camp obtained 41 per cent. The remaining 4 per cent went to the non-affiliated independents, most of whom could be classified as being under the broad pro-democracy umbrella.

With such ratios, the vote share mirrors the typical score for Legislative Council elections, with pan-democrats getting usually around 55 to 60 per cent of the votes, suggesting the deeply split nature of Hong Kong society remained unchanged, not drifting dramatically to one side.

So what were Hongkongers saying with their vote? How many did actually change their political allegiances over the past few months? What of the role of violence in tamping down support for pan-democrats who were loath to condemn the radical protesters and their actions to cause chaos and mayhem? Will the pan-democrats be able to leverage their vote bank for the coming Legislative Council elections and parlay their current strength to seize control of the legislature?

This election is a reflection on the dissatisfaction of the government … [Chan’s] victory does not make sense under a rational analysis Chris Ip, defeated DAB member

For now, these questions are hard to divine as the demographics of polling data will only be available in three months. Interviews with voters, as well as winners and losers on each side suggest that as with any voting decision, a mixed set of reasons compelled people to mark X in a particular box, rarely a single factor.

But analysts have generally called the tectonic outcome the result of protest voting – people expressing their unhappiness with the events of the past months. Voters wanted to express their anger towards Beijing, the local government and police over their handling of protests, alongside their desire for democracy, according to the candidates on the ground. Some might have been put off by the violence, but they were turned off even more by the impasse blamed on the government. They also lumped the pro-establishment camp in with the embattled administration.

“The election is a reflection on the dissatisfaction with the government,” said Ip, a core member of the Democratic Alliance for the Betterment and Progress of Hong Kong (DAB).

He accused Chan of parachuting into the constituency only recently and not even mailing his manifesto to all voters.

“His victory does not make sense under a rational analysis.”

People arrive at polling stations in To Kwa Wan. Photo: Sam Tsang
People arrive at polling stations in To Kwa Wan. Photo: Sam Tsang

Some patterns though can be teased out from the numbers. Voters were clearly fed up of the status quo: the Post found that 207 out of the 392 pro-democracy winners, or 52.8 per cent, were first-time contenders in district council elections, with little on-the-ground experience.

And voters were prepared to take a chance on them. Some 16 per cent, or 34, managed to score more than 60 per cent of the vote, including five from the middle-class Southern district. Another 40 per cent of first-timers won with between 55 and 60 per cent of the vote, again comfortable margins. Some 38 per cent won through close shaves of 50 to 55 per cent of the vote, showing that these could switch just as easily in the next elections. The rest won on less because there were more than two candidates.

Community concerns be damned, it’s all politics

While the pro-democracy camp has always enjoyed a bigger vote share in the city, the district councils were dominated for years by the more resource-rich pro-establishment bloc. Voters tended to place greater weight to the candidates’ proven efforts to improve their local communities – rather than gauge their political stance – when choosing representatives in the lowest tier of the city’s administration.

Such calculations went out the window with Sunday’s elections. As the earlier figures suggest, youthful first-time candidates with little track record in community work were among notable winners. Only four out of 13 pro-establishment lawmakers seeking another term as district councillors were re-elected; the others pushed aside despite their years of tilling the ground.

Like Ip, Stanley Ho Ngai-kam, 34, who had been serving the middle-class Heng Fa Chuen estate in Chai Wan since 2011, bemoaned how he had become collateral damage amid the anti-government sentiments triggered by the protests.

The Federation of Trade Unions member, who received 4,114 votes, lost his seat to political novice Christine Wong Yi, 38, by a margin of 1,209 votes.

“Some supporters told me they would not vote for me this time just because of my political affiliation,” he said, adding that some even urged him to quit his party.

Some supporters told me they would not vote for me this time just because of my political affiliation Stanley Ho, Federation of Trade Unions

Wong bagged 5,323 votes, doubling the number garnered by the two independent pan-democrats running four years ago.

“The sharp increase is shocking and has to be driven by political factors.”

The decision to send a political message rather than to care about local factors has at its heart the desire to push back against mainland China, a core member of the DAB who also lost in the elections admitted. He declined to be named but he believed that the deep-seated tensions and lack of trust between the city’s residents and mainland Chinese authorities fuelled the decision.

The extradition bill, which would have allowed the transfer of fugitives to mainland China, exposed and laid bare these tensions, he said.

Staff count ballots at a polling station during the district council elections. Photo: Miguel Candela
Staff count ballots at a polling station during the district council elections. Photo: Miguel Candela

“The extradition bill stirred up the mistrust of Hongkongers against the central government and the mistrust and anger then turned against the Hong Kong government, police and now the pro-government parties,” he said, insisting he and his camp ended up being the public’s proxy punching bags because the administration itself led by Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor was not on the ballot.

According to him, the parties waving the flag of “loving country” had to bear the brunt of the mistrust, an issue that Beijing ought to pay heed to if it wants the pro-establishment camp to regain its footing.

Some of them only started campaigning in July but have managed to unseat the incumbent who served for three terms. What is this if not political expression? Dr Ma Ngok, Chinese University

Chinese University political academic Dr Ma Ngok argued community effort was no longer as important as before under the current social unrest.

Ma said most of the pro-democracy candidates – including the newcomers – had beaten their Beijing-friendly rivals on a wide margin, particularly in the middle-class districts.

“Some of them only started campaigning in July but have managed to unseat the incumbent who served for three terms. What is this if not political expression?” he said.

In some constituencies, local factors sparked by the protests, compounded the distrust. This explained partly how former student activist Tommy Cheung Sau-yin trounced pro-establishment incumbent Wilson Wong Wai-shun in the Yuen Lung constituency by bagging 58 per cent of the votes, or 3,177 ballots, despite being a latecomer in the election.

An officer shows a questionable ballot paper at To Kwa Wan North, Kowloon City district. Photo: Sam Tsang
An officer shows a questionable ballot paper at To Kwa Wan North, Kowloon City district. Photo: Sam Tsang

Cheung, one of the nine pro-democracy activists found guilty for their role in the 2014 Occupy movement, threw his hat into the ring only in early August. For his campaign, he had called on the setting up of a working group in the district council to look into the indiscriminate mob attack on July 21, in which dozens of white-clad men assaulted passengers and protesters in Yuen Long MTR station.

“Voters want to fight for the five demands,” Cheung said, referring to the protesters’ calls which include an independent probe into police’s use of force and also the implementation of universal suffrage. “But they care about the July 21 [incident] the most as the attack happened within the constituency. The message is clear.”

Cheung accused his rival of abstaining when the idea of a probe was floated in the district council earlier. He said it was probably a reason why voters unceremoniously booted out Wong, a member of the Yuen Long District Council since 2008, who won with 88 per cent of votes four years ago.

Not just youth power but the middle class angrier than the poor?

As the protests rocked the city, nearly 386,000 people registered to vote over the past year – the most since 2003 – raising the number of voters to 4.12 million. The number of registered voters between the ages of 18 and 36 clocked the biggest increase of 12 per cent from last year.

Assuming all new registered voters were also motivated enough to actually vote, they would have made up 13 per cent of the total number of 2.94 million who cast their ballots. But this would be less than the swing towards the democrats. It would thus be safe to assume that a fair number registered to vote to oppose the camp, but in the end, the tide was just not with them.

Officials open a ballot box at a polling station in Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong. Photo Reuters
Officials open a ballot box at a polling station in Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong. Photo Reuters

Similarly, while some political watchers had suggested first-time, young voters were responsible for the swing towards the democrats, the DAB grandee, who declined to give his name, feels the sentiment was cross-generational.

“We are well aware that most youngsters are against us, but what surprised us are those in their 30s to 40s,” he said. “With traditional wisdom, we tended to believe that this age group, representing those with a stable career and about to start building their own families, tend to chase stability and support us. But it seems that’s not the case.”

Political scientist Dr Edmund Cheng Wai of City University said the pro-democracy camp’s victory showed it was definitely because of the anti-bill movement, but cautioned against attributing it solely to the high turnout rate of young people. The maths of that did not add up, he said.

“Young people aged 35 or below are still the minority in society and would not be able to trigger such a landslide. A significant portion of middle-aged or older voters must have voted for the camp as well,” he said.

Democratic Party vice-chairman Lo Kin-hei, who secured a third term in Lei Tung II constituency in Southern district, estimated up to 80 per cent of the 4,737 votes he garnered – or 63 per cent – were political rather than community-oriented votes.

“Voters already know whom to vote once they saw the list without much hesitation,” he said.

Lo said he had frequently heard middle-aged voters in his ageing and lower-class neighbourhood expressing sympathy towards the young protesters.

They might have concerns about the violence, but sympathy trumped that sentiment.

“They felt very sorry to see young people sacrifice their future for their cause. Some argued it was legitimate for police to arrest those who hurled bricks or set fires, but they by no means should assault them. Others were furious when they talked about Carrie Lam,” he said. “Barely anyone talked about community issues.”

Voters at the district council elections in To Kwa Wan. Photo: Sam Tsang
Voters at the district council elections in To Kwa Wan. Photo: Sam Tsang

Former journalist and independent candidate Li Wing-shan, who won her seat in Lower Ngau Tau Kok Estate in Kwun Tong noticed a difference between residents living in public housing estates and private property.

Her constituency has a mix of both estates. She started her campaign in July by setting up booths to provide health care services – such as blood pressure measurement – for elderly residents living in public housing estates, but soon took heat from those living in the private flats.

“They questioned my stance and accused me of not showing a clear-cut stand on political issues,” she said.

Li, 29, eventually included “five demands, not one less” – a major rallying cry of protesters – in her election message, alongside other calls on local issues such as improving hygiene and building maintenance in the district.

She won narrowly by 258 votes in the pro-establishment stronghold held by Cheung Yiu-pan of the DAB.

“There are political factors for sure, but I can also tell the constituency is very polarised,” she said.

Steamed buns with blood

Three days in a row since the landslide victory of the democrats, small groups of Hongkongers have taken to the streets during lunchtime and evening protests to chant: “Hong Kong has not won yet.”

For me, even Carrie Lam going will not be enough, because it’s not about a person, it’s about a rotten system. Her departure is not even one of our demands Mrs Wong, retiree

A retiree in her 60s surnamed Wong, who took part in a singing protest in Tsim Sha Tsui on Tuesday night, said she expected the government to make some small concessions in the near future after the election results.

“But we must not be fooled by some token gestures that fall short of real change like democratic reforms,” she said. “For me, even Carrie Lam going will not be enough, because it’s not about a person, it’s about a rotten system. Her departure is not even one of our demands.”

Office worker Cyrus Sin, in his 30s who took part in a lunchtime protests on Tuesday, was pessimistic that the government would back down. But he believed the overwhelming victory of the camp could send a clear message to the international community to understand the feelings of Hongkongers. He added it could also let local supporters of the pro-establishment camp – who previously did not recognise that most of the population wanted to defend democratic freedoms – “clearly understand this reality”.

Officials count ballots at a polling station as voting officially closes in Hong Kong. Photo: EPA
Officials count ballots at a polling station as voting officially closes in Hong Kong. Photo: EPA

Beneath the celebrations was also the feeling of guilt that victory was paid for by those injured and arrested over the five months of protests. A white-collar worker, surnamed Lau, also at that protest, described the overwhelming victory for the pro-democracy camp in the elections as eating “steamed human-blood buns”.

The metaphor, from the late Chinese essayist Lu Xun, is often used to refer to those who succeeded on the backs of the sacrifices of others.

“Casting my vote is the only thing I can do to speak for those who have sacrificed themselves,” Lau said.

More than 5,800 people have been arrested so far over their actions in the movement.

Lau said she hoped the winners would undertake concrete actions such as halting the so-called “white elephant” projects and speak for voters’ political concerns at the district councils and to the government.

At least 16 newly elected councillors on Wednesday announced that they would hire protesters, including those arrested, as staff members.

Tommy Cheung said he understood the heavy responsibility of the new councillors. “We will be eating ‘steamed human-blood buns’ if we sit here and do nothing, ignoring the protesters, failing our job to improve livelihoods and eventually losing the seats to the pro-establishment four years later.”

Additional reporting by Chan Ho-him and Victor Ting