Germany eyes some normality after bringing coronavirus outbreak ‘under control’

Declaring that it has brought the coronavirus “under control”, Germany will allow thousands of shops, bookstores, furniture stores and car dealerships to reopen on Monday in what amounts to a first significant step towards a return to normality in Europe’s biggest economy.

But the cautious restart in Germany after a month of public lockdown – a reflection of its low Covid-19 death and falling reproduction rates – stands in sharp contrast to Spain, France, Italy and the UK. Lockdowns designed to slow the spread of the virus have been extended into May as the total numbers of deaths in those four major European countries rose ominously towards 80,000.

“The outbreak has become more and more under control and manageable every day,” German Health Minister Jens Spahn said at a news conference in Berlin on Friday, comments that resonated against a backdrop of gloom coming from other parts of Europe.

More than 20,000 people have died each in Italy and Spain while the fatality numbers in France (19,349) and the UK (15,498) also continue to rise rapidly every day. Germany has the world’s fifth highest number of infected (143,724) yet has only the eighth highest number of deaths (4,538) – behind the United States, Italy, Spain, France, UK, Belgium, and Iran.

Germany, which has the world’s fourth largest economy, has emerged as a leader among European nations in the fight against the pandemic and its tentative steps to ease the social and business restrictions that have crippled economies will be watched closely for signs of hope or caution across Europe and around the world.

The low fatality rates in Germany – at 3 per cent compared to levels around 13 per cent in Italy, UK and France – and its success in slowing the spread of the virus compared to more unfavourable developments in other countries has been a source of intense speculation as well as envy. It will likely long be studied for insights into how to better control pandemics in the future.

Germany, UK and the stark difference in coronavirus deaths

The slowing in Germany has been attributed to a number of fortuitous factors: widespread testing and aggressive lockdown measures from an early stage of the outbreak; a public that dutifully obeyed the government’s strict social-distancing rules banning groups of more than two people or immediate family members; a well-funded public health care system with 1,900 hospitals; and a high number of some 40,000 intensive care beds able to handle larger numbers of patients in need.

More than 120,000 coronavirus tests are conducted every day in Germany and the country also has started experimental widespread blood testing for Covid-19 antibodies in thousands of people to try to learn more. By contrast, the UK aimed to have 100,000 tests a day by the end of April but those ambitions have not been met with only 18,665 on Friday, according to the BBC.

Unlike in other countries where unemployment and economic uncertainty has soared during the lockdown, the German public has been by and large pacified by billions of euros in support from the social welfare state government to idled businesses, workers and even freelancers in all walks of life.

“The federal and state governments slammed on the brakes in mid-March,” said Spahn. “We can now look back and say that was a success. We managed to bring back the dynamic growth to a linear growth. The infection rates have dropped significantly.”

Spahn also pointed out that since April 12 the numbers of people who recovered from Covid-19 infections each day had surpassed the numbers of newly infected. “That’s really encouraging,” he said. More people have now recovered in Germany (88,000) than in any other country, according to the US-based Johns Hopkins University, which tracks global virus data.

Lufthansa resumes flights to China – to collect tonnes of masks for Germany

The reproduction factor has now fallen to 0.7 in Germany – which means that every 10 people carrying the coronavirus infected an average of seven others, according to Spahn. The reproduction factor was estimated to be 3 to 4 in March when the restrictions were introduced.

Chancellor Angela Merkel, who labelled the lockdown measures a “fragile partial success”, vowed to keep a close eye on that reproduction factor, even while allowing some parts of the economy to reopen from Monday, and said that if it rises above 1.0 restrictions would be reintroduced after the next review of the situation on April 30.

Yet from Monday all bookstores, bike shops, and car dealerships (thanks to the powerful car lobby) will be allowed to reopen while other shops of up to 8,000 sq ft – the size of about three tennis courts – will be allowed to reopen if they maintain hygiene standards. Schools across Germany will be allowed to reopen on May 4, although in some regions schools will restart earlier than that. There is no universal requirement to wear protective face masks but instead a strong recommendation to do so.

Signalling to Germans that the worst may be over and tacitly inviting people to skirt the rules in some states, the governors of Berlin, Lower Saxony and North Rhine-Westphalia announced that even larger department stores and malls would be able to open parts of their more cavernous floor space for customers.

“We’re going to need a long time living with this new normality,” said Vice-Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz.

The relaxations in Germany from Monday follow similarly modest re-openings of some shops, schools and outdoor sports facilities in Austria, Denmark and the Czech Republic last week – countries that have not been hit as hard as the major European nations.

As rest of Europe battles coronavirus, these countries plan to ease restrictions

For some, Germany is emerging as a role model for other countries looking for the right course in restarting their economies without triggering a lethal increase in the numbers of people who lose their lives to Covid-19.

But Italy, Spain, France and the UK are headed in the opposite direction.

In Spain, where 565 people died on Saturday to take the country’s total over 20,000, Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez said he would extend the state of emergency to May 9 rather than lift it on April 25 – even though the country will start allowing construction sites and some factories to reopen.

“Spain has contained the brutal attack of the pandemic,” Sanchez said in a TV address on Saturday evening. “The gains aren’t enough yet, and they are fragile.”

In France, where the death toll of 642 people on Saturday was the lowest in five days, President Emmanuel Macron had already extended the country’s lockdown by another month to May 11 and admitted in a television address last week: “Were we prepared for this crisis? Obviously, not enough”.

In the UK, where 888 people died on Saturday, Foreign Secretary Dominic Raab had announced on Thursday that lockdown restrictions would continue for “at least” another three weeks after the first three-week lockdown was announced on March 23.

“There is light at the end of the tunnel but we are now at both a delicate and dangerous stage in this pandemic,” he said. “If we rush to relax the measures that we have in place we would risk wasting all the sacrifices and all the progress that has been made.”