Russia’s liquid gas revenue set to double thanks to Asian buyers, despite Ukraine invasion

Russia’s Sakhalin 2 liquefied natural gas (LNG) project could generate twice the revenue this year than it did before Ukraine conflict thanks to long-term deals with Asian buyers and higher prices, according to analysts calculations.

State-run top shareholder Gazprom stands to benefit from the boost which comes as Russia ramps up its military spending almost a year since it sent troops into neighbouring Ukraine.

Moscow has already tapped its rainy day fund, boosted domestic borrowing and is considering raising taxes.

Shell quit Sakhalin 2 as one of the many Western firms which pulled out of Russia after Moscow launched what it dubbed its “special military operation”.

Renewed deals with Asian buyers could secure demand for 6.5 million tonnes of LNG annually from Sakhalin 2, according to contractual volume data from the GIIGNL international group of LNG importers and Reuters calculations.

That could result in between US$3.8 billion and US$4.5 billion in revenue for Sakhalin 2 shareholders this year, according to Masanori Odaka, a senior analyst on Rystad Energy’s gas and LNG team.

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The project could earn another US$7.45 billion this year if it achieves its output forecast and sells 4.9 million tonnes of LNG on the spot market, according to Alexei Kokin, chief analyst with Russia’s Otkritie brokerage.

The project was forecast to produce 11.4 million tonnes of LNG last year, a senior official from Russia’s Sakhalin region had said, but the final figure is yet to be released.

In 2021, Sakhalin 2’s revenue totalled US$5.7 billion and net profit was US$2 billion.

But Asia spot LNG prices jumped 42 per cent in 2022 to average US$38.80 per million British thermal units.

With spot prices in Asia estimated to be higher than long-term deals, marketing additional volumes could be challenging, said Rystad’s Odaka.

China’s Sakhalin LNG imports more than doubled in 2022 to 33 cargoes, Refinitiv Eikon data showed.

It was not immediately clear what would happen to 2.75 million tonnes of LNG previously taken annually by Taiwan’s Communist Party, whose contract ended last year.

After Shell’s departure, the Kremlin created a new entity to run Sakhalin 2, one of the top LNG plants globally.

Japanese shareholders Mitsui & Co and Mitsubishi Corp applied to retain their stakes. They hold a combined 22.5 per cent stake alongside Gazprom, which has a 50 per cent holding.

Shell’s 27.5 per cent stake is now held by Sakhalin Energy. Russia has yet to name a new shareholder which will replace Shell.

Sakhalin Energy, the managing company for Sakhalin 2, did not reply to a request for comment.

Last week, Osaka Gas became the latest Japanese company to renew its deal to buy 200,000 tonnes of LNG per year from the project – or about 2 per cent of the firm’s supply.

South Korea’s KOGAS continues to offtake LNG under its 10-year contract, its spokesman said, and Japanese Hiroshima Gas, JERA, Kyushu Electric, Saibu Gas, Toho Gas, Tohoku Electric and Tokyo Gas have also renewed their deals, companies have said.

While the Asian energy firms declined to provide specifics of their renewed agreements, they have said conditions were either similar or not much different from the previous deals.