Scandal tarnishes Canada PM Justin Trudeau’s image as poll shows he could lose power in October election

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau rose to power as a press-whispering, selfie-snapping, progressive icon who promised transparency and went viral for promoting women.

But after four years in the spotlight, Trudeau’s government faces accusations of shady brokering and back room bullying, of sexism and hypocrisy.

Though Trudeau has tried to defend his government’s actions, he seems, suddenly, at a loss for words – at least the right ones.

Former members of his cabinet are speaking out, support for Trudeau and his Liberals has fallen for the first time behind the opposition, and the press is having a field day.

Maclean’s, a national magazine, ran a cover with picture of a grinning Trudeau and the words,

“The Imposter”, in all caps.

Foreign Policy asked whether Canada’s “golden boy” has lost his shine.

The scope of the scandal is such that many Canadians are wondering if he will hold on to his majority government the upcoming election.

Whatever happens, Trudeau’s rock star status seems like a thing of the past.

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“The problem is that this particular scandal goes to his carefully crafted image,” said Christopher Sands, director of the Centre for Canadian Studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington.

The crisis shaking Ottawa started as a legal matter but has devolved, over weeks, into a political scandal that touches on a number of hot-button Canadian issues, from the status of Quebec to corporate influence, to indigenous and women’s rights.

At the heart of the scandal are claims that Trudeau’s team pressured Canada’s first indigenous attorney general, Jody Wilson-Raybould, to cut a deal with an engineering firm from Trudeau’s home province, Quebec, and the implication that he demoted her to veterans affairs when she refused.

The company, Montreal-based SNC-Lavalin, was charged by Canadian authorities in 2015 for allegedly using bribes to secure business deals in Muammar Gaddafi-era Libya.

The case is ongoing.

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It did not make major headlines until last month, when a report in The Globe and Mail claimed that Trudeau’s team “pressed” Wilson-Raybould to cut SNC-Lavalin a deal known as a deferred prosecution agreement.

These agreements, which are used in several countries, allow corporations to avoid criminal convictions in return for admitting wrongdoing, paying a fine and committing to stricter compliance rules.

Trudeau responded to The Globe and Mail report by stating that his team did not “direct” Wilson-Raybould’s decision.

On February 12, Wilson-Raybould resigned from her post as minister of veteran affairs, hiring a high-profile lawyer, but saying little else.

In the political furore that followed, Trudeau’s most powerful aid, Gerald Butts, resigned, saying he did not want accusations against the government to “take one moment away from the vital work the Prime Minister and his office is doing for all Canadians”.

Last week Wilson-Raybould testified that 11 members of Trudeau’s team pressured her, with some resorting to “veiled threats”, to get her to cut a deal.

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On Monday, another senior, female member of Trudeau’s team, Jane Philpott, resigned from the cabinet, citing the leader’s handling of the SNC-Lavalin affair.

“It is a fundamental doctrine of the rule of law that our Attorney General should not be subjected to political pressure or interference regarding the exercise of her prosecutorial discretion in criminal cases,” her resignation letter said.

“Sadly, I have lost confidence in how the government has dealt with this matter and in how it has responded to the issues raised.”

On Tuesday, Trudeau appeared to be steering clear of the press. On Wednesday, the prime minister was expected to be in private meetings all day.

Trudeau expressed “disappointment” at the news of Philpott’s resignation but has said little else.

Nik Nanos, a Canadian pollster, said it was unusual to see Trudeau’s usually savvy team struggle to reshape the narrative.

“They have been on the defensive almost daily,” he said.

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“We have only really heard one side of the story, plus little snippets from the prime minister.”

Adding to Trudeau’s woes is an opinion poll that showed he stood a real chance of losing power in an election this October.

An Ipsos poll for Global News released on Tuesday showed the Conservatives would get 40 per cent support from decided voters compared with just 31 per cent for Trudeau, more than enough to ensure his defeat.

The poll of 1,000 Canadians was carried out between March 1 and March 4, on the heels of Wilson-Raybould’s resignation, followed by Butts and most recently Philpott who quit on Monday.

“This is the first time we’ve actually seen the Conservative Party … looking like they could potentially form the government,” Ipsos Public Affairs chief executive Darrell Bricker told Global News.

The official opposition Conservatives are demanding Trudeau step down, but the Liberals say it will be hard for other parties to keep the issue alive all the way until October.

There are no immediate signs of an attempt to pressure Trudeau to leave, if only because it can take years to force out a Canadian leader who does not want to go.

The heads of political parties are elected by members at formal conventions and cannot be sacked after a snap vote by parliamentarians, as is the case in Britain and Australia.

In statements to domestic media, every one of the 33 remaining cabinet members – including Finance Minister Bill Morneau and Foreign Minister Chrystia Freeland – issued statements backing Trudeau.

“Removing a leader just a few months before an election would be suicide,” said one Liberal.

Additional reporting by Reuters and Agence France-Presse