Source:
https://scmp.com/property/international/article/1888004/uk-house-prices-expected-rise-6pc-2016
Property/ International

UK house prices expected to rise 6pc in 2016

Growth surpasses forecasts this year amid scant supply and low interest rates

A view of semi-detached homes in Bexleyheath, southeast London, May 12, 2014. The Bank of England gave a clean bill of health to Britain's controversial flagship mortgage guarantee scheme on Thursday, sparing the government from potential embarrassment in the run-up to a national election. The central bank also formally asked to expand its arsenal of powers to curb mortgage lending for homes and buy-to-let properties, and said it was bringing forward the date when it would put a figure on the maximum leverage banks can have. Picture taken May 12, 2014. REUTERS/Suzanne Plunkett (BRITAIN - Tags: BUSINESS REAL ESTATE) ATTENTION EDITORS - PICTURE 02 OF 21 FOR WIDER IMAGE STORY 'NEIGHBOURING VISIONS' SEARCH 'PLUNKETT VISIONS' FOR ALL PICTURES

British house price are likely to rise more slowly next year, at 4 to 6 per cent, compared with growth of nearly 10 per cent in the past 12 months, mortgage lender Halifax forecast.

Last year, Halifax said house prices would rise by 3 to 5 per cent this year. But its own figures have shown growth of more than twice that in the year to October.

“House prices look expensive compared to incomes but valuations are supported by the low levels of property for sale, low levels of housebuilding and exceptionally low interest rates,” Halifax housing economist Martin Ellis said.

The Bank of England’s failure to raise interest rates was blamed for the jump in house prices. Photo: Reuters
The Bank of England’s failure to raise interest rates was blamed for the jump in house prices. Photo: Reuters
The failure of the Bank of England to increase interest rates, as markets had expected this year, was a key reason why house prices had risen faster than forecast, Ellis added.

Other data showed a slower rate of increase than Halifax’s numbers. The Office for National Statistics has reported a 6.1 per cent gain for the year to September.

Economists polled recently predicted on average that house prices would rise 4.3 per cent next year and 3.9 per cent in 2017.

Bank of England chief economist Andy Haldane last month called the British housing market “broken”, blaming a long-term failure of construction to keep up with demand.

Last year, the central bank restricted high loan-to-income mortgages for residential purchases. It is looking now at whether to recommend curbs on “buy-to-let” mortgages favoured by small property investors.

But it has stopped short of deeming the price rises a major threat to financial stability.