Beijing 2022: without the NHL’s best, Russia are favourites for Olympic gold, but could Finland or Germany spring a surprise?

Russia, OAR, ROC – whatever the name, now the world’s best players are out of the Beijing Olympics, the Russians will be the favourites for the gold medal.

After the NHL withdrew from the Winter Games on Wednesday to save a league schedule ravaged by virus outbreaks on numerous teams, Europe-based players are set to dominate the Olympic men’s tournament.

That puts the Russians, competing in Beijing as ROC for Russian Olympic Committee, in a strong position to retain the gold medal they won in 2018 under the Olympic Athletes from Russia name. The name changes were required as part of Russia’s sanctions for various doping-related issues across multiple Olympic sports.

Just as it was four years ago, the Kontinental Hockey League remains the strongest league outside North America. Russia has used the big-spending SKA St Petersburg and CSKA Moscow clubs to keep some talented younger Russians at home when they might otherwise have moved to the West.

The Russian roster will be less familiar to North American fans than the 2018 line-up led by Pavel Datsyuk and Ilya Kovalchuk, who have not officially retired but have not played any hockey this season. Kovalchuk may be in Beijing in a manager role for the Russian Hockey Federation.

Some 2018 gold medallists are now in the NHL, including Minnesota Wild forward Kirill Kaprizov, Ottawa Senators defenceman Artem Zub and two of the three goaltenders: the New York Rangers’ Igor Shesterkin and Islanders’ Ilya Sorokin.

Expect centre Vadim Shipachyov, briefly of the Vegas Golden Knights in 2017-18, to star for the ROC. He has 21 goals and 36 assists in 40 games in the KHL this season for Dynamo Moscow. Experienced forward Mikhail Grigorenko is available because he moved back to Russia this season after spending 2020-21 with the Columbus Blue Jackets, and former New Jersey Devils wing Nikita Gusev is likely to make the roster, too.

NHL says Beijing 2022 Olympics ‘no longer feasible’ for stars

Former Los Angeles Kings defenceman Slava Voynov has not played in the NHL since a 2014 domestic violence arrest and subsequent suspension, but he is also considered key to Russia’s plans.

Finland’s chance

The Russians can be beaten, though. Finland proved that on Sunday with a 3-2 overtime win in Moscow during the Channel One Cup, a tournament used as a pre-Olympic tune-up for non-NHL players.

The game-winning goal was a bizarre one, awarded by the referees because of a penalty on a Finland breakaway facing the empty Russian net. The puck never entered the net. Finland won all three of their games in the tournament but needed overtime twice.

Former NHL players who are candidates for Finland include forwards Markus Granlund and Leo Komarov, and defenceman Julius Honka. Komarov played a game for the Islanders earlier this season before agreeing to mutually terminate his contract.

Canada sent a team to the tournament too, beating Sweden but losing to Finland and Russia with a roster assembled from clubs in six different countries. Two free agents, defenceman Jason Demers and centre Eric Fehr, brought much-needed experience with 699 and 652 career NHL games, respectively, and both subsequently signed with the same KHL team.

Former Montreal Canadiens coach Claude Julien is in line to be behind the bench for Canada, with ex-Arizona Coyotes captain Shane Doan the top candidate to serve as general manager.

Wearing throwback Soviet Union uniforms, Russia had wins over Canada, Sweden and the Czech Republic.

USA Hockey could soon turn to assistant executive director of hockey operations and retired NHL goaltender John Vanbiesbrouck as GM. Former Rangers coach David Quinn is a leading candidate to get the US Olympic job overseeing a roster that includes some college players.

Germany’s year again?

The absence of the NHL creates opportunities for a surprise. In 2018, that was Germany, who took silver after a 4-3 overtime loss to the Russians in the final.

The Germans were helped by their team cohesion, with players almost entirely drawn from their national Bundesliga and familiar with each other’s play. The NHL’s decision means MVP Leon Draisaitl is still waiting to represent his country at the Olympics. Germany beat Slovakia, Switzerland and a Russian “B” team in a tune-up tournament on home ice in November.

Boost for China

Host nation China was under pressure to prove its men’s team meets the competitive standard to play Olympic hockey. That is less of an issue now.

China has used KHL club Kunlun Red Star as a proxy for the national team, with mostly naturalised players born in the US and Canada, many of them with Chinese heritage. Kunlun are ranked last among the 24 teams in the KHL and lost two games used by the International Ice Hockey Federation to gauge the side’s readiness.

China have been drawn against the US, Canada and Germany in the pool stage. Without the NHL, there’s less chance of China’s games becoming record blowouts.